Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models drives the closely matched market-implied probabilities for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum temperature, with 27°C and 28°C leading at 31.5% and 28.5%. Ensemble guidance highlights modest variations in boundary-layer heating and southerly warm-air advection beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, where differences in cloud cover, mixing depth, and the timing of any diurnal sea-breeze circulation can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. These outcomes sit notably above the long-term August average high of roughly 21–22°C, reflecting an anomalously warm pattern. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月12日のアムステルダムの最高気温は？
8月12日のアムステルダムの最高気温は？
27℃ 37%
28°C 30%
26°C 16%
29°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/08/12
23°C以下
<1%
24℃
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
16%
27℃
37%
28°C
30%
29°C
13%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33℃以上
<1%
27℃ 37%
28°C 30%
26°C 16%
29°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/08/12
23°C以下
$452 Vol.
<1%
24℃
$457 Vol.
1%
25°C
$323 Vol.
4%
26°C
$1,385 Vol.
16%
27℃
$380 Vol.
37%
28°C
$3,659 Vol.
30%
29°C
$1,223 Vol.
13%
30°C
$84 Vol.
4%
31°C
$38 Vol.
1%
32°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
33℃以上
$44 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models drives the closely matched market-implied probabilities for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum temperature, with 27°C and 28°C leading at 31.5% and 28.5%. Ensemble guidance highlights modest variations in boundary-layer heating and southerly warm-air advection beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, where differences in cloud cover, mixing depth, and the timing of any diurnal sea-breeze circulation can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. These outcomes sit notably above the long-term August average high of roughly 21–22°C, reflecting an anomalously warm pattern. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
音量
$8,087終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models drives the closely matched market-implied probabilities for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum temperature, with 27°C and 28°C leading at 31.5% and 28.5%. Ensemble guidance highlights modest variations in boundary-layer heating and southerly warm-air advection beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, where differences in cloud cover, mixing depth, and the timing of any diurnal sea-breeze circulation can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. These outcomes sit notably above the long-term August average high of roughly 21–22°C, reflecting an anomalously warm pattern. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$8,087終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETForecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models drives the closely matched market-implied probabilities for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum temperature, with 27°C and 28°C leading at 31.5% and 28.5%. Ensemble guidance highlights modest variations in boundary-layer heating and southerly warm-air advection beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, where differences in cloud cover, mixing depth, and the timing of any diurnal sea-breeze circulation can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. These outcomes sit notably above the long-term August average high of roughly 21–22°C, reflecting an anomalously warm pattern. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問