Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for August 21 project a maximum of 27–31°C under east to southeast winds of force 4–5, mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap daytime heating. This range underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, with 30°C leading at 33%. Persistent moisture and reduced solar radiation differentiate these outcomes from higher or lower extremes by suppressing peak temperatures relative to climatological August averages near 32°C. Recent model guidance shows consistent patterns, though traders monitor potential revisions from updated runs in the final 48 hours that could shift convective activity or wind fields.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月21日の香港の最高気温は?
30°C 34%
31°C 28%
29°C 25%
32°C 9%
$20,910 Vol.
$20,910 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
25%
30°C
34%
31°C
28%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 34%
31°C 28%
29°C 25%
32°C 9%
$20,910 Vol.
$20,910 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
25%
30°C
34%
31°C
28%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for August 21 project a maximum of 27–31°C under east to southeast winds of force 4–5, mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap daytime heating. This range underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, with 30°C leading at 33%. Persistent moisture and reduced solar radiation differentiate these outcomes from higher or lower extremes by suppressing peak temperatures relative to climatological August averages near 32°C. Recent model guidance shows consistent patterns, though traders monitor potential revisions from updated runs in the final 48 hours that could shift convective activity or wind fields.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問