Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a daytime maximum near 25°C on May 17, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure system that promotes subsidence and a moist easterly flow sustaining extensive cloud cover to limit solar heating. This setup aligns with climatological May averages of 28–31°C yet reflects a cooler anomaly consistent with current conditions, where numerical weather prediction ensembles show strong consensus on suppressed temperatures. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 25°C outcome at 99.9 percent because traders assess minimal risk of deviation absent unexpected breaks in cloudiness or shifts in steering winds. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Observatory’s reference station, with any sustained clear periods potentially allowing brief exceedance of that threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の香港の最高気温は?
25°C 99.8%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$266,406 Vol.
$266,406 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.8%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$266,406 Vol.
$266,406 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a daytime maximum near 25°C on May 17, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure system that promotes subsidence and a moist easterly flow sustaining extensive cloud cover to limit solar heating. This setup aligns with climatological May averages of 28–31°C yet reflects a cooler anomaly consistent with current conditions, where numerical weather prediction ensembles show strong consensus on suppressed temperatures. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 25°C outcome at 99.9 percent because traders assess minimal risk of deviation absent unexpected breaks in cloudiness or shifts in steering winds. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the Observatory’s reference station, with any sustained clear periods potentially allowing brief exceedance of that threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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