The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00 percent, coupled with Chair Kevin Warsh’s refusal to provide forward guidance, has driven the 2-year Treasury yield lower in late October despite robust Q3 GDP growth of 3.4 percent and September PCE inflation rising to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The yield fell as much as 30 basis points during the month to levels near 4.56–4.61 percent by October 29–30, reflecting trader reassessment of near-term policy tightening odds after two hawkish dissents failed to shift the statement. Elevated inflation above the 2 percent target and resilient labor-market data continue to support expectations of possible December action, yet the front end has priced in greater uncertainty. With October nearly complete, final trading sessions and any last-minute data will determine the month’s low.