The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% in early September 2026, after trading above 5.30% in mid-August amid a sharp rise in the term premium. Persistent fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, combined with heavy Treasury issuance and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, have lifted real yields and reduced demand from price-sensitive buyers. Geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher have reinforced inflation concerns, while hawkish Federal Reserve communications have tempered expectations for near-term policy easing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded long-bond buyback program provided only temporary relief before yields rebounded. Upcoming CPI, employment data, and FOMC signals will likely dictate whether yields can test lower levels before month-end.