The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.79% after touching multi-year highs above 4.81% in early September 2026, reflects persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy outlook. Headline PCE inflation reached 4.1% year-over-year through May amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, while core measures remained around 3.4%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with officials signaling openness to hikes if inflation fails to moderate. Rising term premiums, driven by record Treasury issuance amid federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data plus FOMC communications that could shift expectations for monetary policy tightening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/30
4.76%未満
50%
4.73%未満
50%
4.70%未満
50%
4.67%未満
50%
4.64％未満
50%
4.61％未満
49%
4.56%未満
49%
4.51％未満
49%
4.45%未満
49%
$0.00 Vol.
4.76%未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.73%未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.70%未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.67%未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.64％未満
$0 Vol.
50%
4.61％未満
$0 Vol.
49%
4.56%未満
$0 Vol.
49%
4.51％未満
$0 Vol.
49%
4.45%未満
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.79% after touching multi-year highs above 4.81% in early September 2026, reflects persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy outlook. Headline PCE inflation reached 4.1% year-over-year through May amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, while core measures remained around 3.4%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with officials signaling openness to hikes if inflation fails to moderate. Rising term premiums, driven by record Treasury issuance amid federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data plus FOMC communications that could shift expectations for monetary policy tightening.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.79% after touching multi-year highs above 4.81% in early September 2026, reflects persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy outlook. Headline PCE inflation reached 4.1% year-over-year through May amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, while core measures remained around 3.4%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with officials signaling openness to hikes if inflation fails to moderate. Rising term premiums, driven by record Treasury issuance amid federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data plus FOMC communications that could shift expectations for monetary policy tightening.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.79% after touching multi-year highs above 4.81% in early September 2026, reflects persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish policy outlook. Headline PCE inflation reached 4.1% year-over-year through May amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, while core measures remained around 3.4%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with officials signaling openness to hikes if inflation fails to moderate. Rising term premiums, driven by record Treasury issuance amid federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure, have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and employment data plus FOMC communications that could shift expectations for monetary policy tightening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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