Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 69.2%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 17%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 3.0%
$25,917,535 Vol.
$25,917,535 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
69%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
17%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
1%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 69.2%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 17%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 3.0%
$25,917,535 Vol.
$25,917,535 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$4,055,753 Vol.
69%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$1,214,605 Vol.
17%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$1,170,364 Vol.
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$1,064,870 Vol.
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$1,142,957 Vol.
1%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$1,377,382 Vol.
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$2,434,007 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$1,089,719 Vol.
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,685,029 Vol.
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$2,400,471 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$3,010,194 Vol.
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$3,183,753 Vol.
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$2,088,678 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$25,917,535終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$25,917,535終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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