Minnesota's eight congressional districts feature a stable partisan split, with four seats rated safe for Democratic incumbents in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area and surrounding suburbs. The primary variable remains the open 2nd district, where Democrat Angie Craig's retirement to pursue a Senate bid has drawn Republican challengers and shifted the race toward greater competitiveness. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the remaining districts as safe holds for their respective parties, with minimal polling movement or candidate developments altering the baseline through mid-August. This configuration underpins trader consensus around four Democratic seats as the modal outcome, while modest probabilities for five or six reflect uncertainty over whether the 2nd district tilts Democratic or produces an additional pickup.