**Iran maintains its position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable right under the NPT, creating a core barrier to any agreement ending the practice by December 31, 2026.** US-Iran talks mediated by Oman have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons and to address its enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised downblending, yet enrichment limits and verification details remain unresolved. Recent July 2026 Doha discussions prioritized the Strait of Hormuz over nuclear specifics, with US officials noting further talks ahead while Iran continues rejecting zero-enrichment proposals. US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, reducing capacity but leaving stockpiles and the underlying dispute intact. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability for “No,” underscoring the gap between current diplomatic progress and a firm deadline commitment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$1,590,019 Vol.
$1,590,019 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$1,590,019 Vol.
$1,590,019 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Iran maintains its position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable right under the NPT, creating a core barrier to any agreement ending the practice by December 31, 2026.** US-Iran talks mediated by Oman have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons and to address its enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised downblending, yet enrichment limits and verification details remain unresolved. Recent July 2026 Doha discussions prioritized the Strait of Hormuz over nuclear specifics, with US officials noting further talks ahead while Iran continues rejecting zero-enrichment proposals. US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, reducing capacity but leaving stockpiles and the underlying dispute intact. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability for “No,” underscoring the gap between current diplomatic progress and a firm deadline commitment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
音量
$1,590,019終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Iran maintains its position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable right under the NPT, creating a core barrier to any agreement ending the practice by December 31, 2026.** US-Iran talks mediated by Oman have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons and to address its enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised downblending, yet enrichment limits and verification details remain unresolved. Recent July 2026 Doha discussions prioritized the Strait of Hormuz over nuclear specifics, with US officials noting further talks ahead while Iran continues rejecting zero-enrichment proposals. US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, reducing capacity but leaving stockpiles and the underlying dispute intact. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability for “No,” underscoring the gap between current diplomatic progress and a firm deadline commitment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,590,019終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran maintains its position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable right under the NPT, creating a core barrier to any agreement ending the practice by December 31, 2026.** US-Iran talks mediated by Oman have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons and to address its enriched uranium stockpile through IAEA-supervised downblending, yet enrichment limits and verification details remain unresolved. Recent July 2026 Doha discussions prioritized the Strait of Hormuz over nuclear specifics, with US officials noting further talks ahead while Iran continues rejecting zero-enrichment proposals. US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, reducing capacity but leaving stockpiles and the underlying dispute intact. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 86.5% implied probability for “No,” underscoring the gap between current diplomatic progress and a firm deadline commitment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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