Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated through Oman and other channels, drive the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability that Iran will publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent proposals show Iran offering to cap enrichment at low levels like 3.5%, discuss stockpile reductions or down-blending, and accept IAEA verification in exchange for sanctions relief, while the United States seeks a longer moratorium of up to 20 years and full removal of highly enriched material. Progress since earlier 2026 rounds in Islamabad and Geneva has narrowed gaps on some verification issues, yet persistent differences over timelines and facility dismantlement sustain uncertainty. Breakthroughs on sanctions or third-country transfers could strengthen the Yes side, whereas stalled diplomacy or renewed escalations might shift sentiment toward No.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$195,025 Vol.
$195,025 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$195,025 Vol.
$195,025 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated through Oman and other channels, drive the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability that Iran will publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent proposals show Iran offering to cap enrichment at low levels like 3.5%, discuss stockpile reductions or down-blending, and accept IAEA verification in exchange for sanctions relief, while the United States seeks a longer moratorium of up to 20 years and full removal of highly enriched material. Progress since earlier 2026 rounds in Islamabad and Geneva has narrowed gaps on some verification issues, yet persistent differences over timelines and facility dismantlement sustain uncertainty. Breakthroughs on sanctions or third-country transfers could strengthen the Yes side, whereas stalled diplomacy or renewed escalations might shift sentiment toward No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
音量
$195,025終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated through Oman and other channels, drive the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability that Iran will publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent proposals show Iran offering to cap enrichment at low levels like 3.5%, discuss stockpile reductions or down-blending, and accept IAEA verification in exchange for sanctions relief, while the United States seeks a longer moratorium of up to 20 years and full removal of highly enriched material. Progress since earlier 2026 rounds in Islamabad and Geneva has narrowed gaps on some verification issues, yet persistent differences over timelines and facility dismantlement sustain uncertainty. Breakthroughs on sanctions or third-country transfers could strengthen the Yes side, whereas stalled diplomacy or renewed escalations might shift sentiment toward No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$195,025終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated through Oman and other channels, drive the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability that Iran will publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent proposals show Iran offering to cap enrichment at low levels like 3.5%, discuss stockpile reductions or down-blending, and accept IAEA verification in exchange for sanctions relief, while the United States seeks a longer moratorium of up to 20 years and full removal of highly enriched material. Progress since earlier 2026 rounds in Islamabad and Geneva has narrowed gaps on some verification issues, yet persistent differences over timelines and facility dismantlement sustain uncertainty. Breakthroughs on sanctions or third-country transfers could strengthen the Yes side, whereas stalled diplomacy or renewed escalations might shift sentiment toward No.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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