Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated indirectly through Oman following the 2025-2026 ceasefire, remain the central driver behind the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Washington continues to press for a permanent halt or long-term moratorium on enrichment activities along with removal of existing stockpiles, while Tehran insists on retaining its right to enrich under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has offered only temporary suspensions or down-blending in exchange for sanctions relief. Recent Iranian statements rejecting full transfer proposals and signaling potential escalation to higher enrichment levels if strikes resume have sustained uncertainty. Any breakthrough in verification commitments or stockpile handling before year-end could shift trader consensus toward yes, whereas stalled negotiations or renewed diplomatic friction would reinforce no.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated indirectly through Oman following the 2025-2026 ceasefire, remain the central driver behind the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Washington continues to press for a permanent halt or long-term moratorium on enrichment activities along with removal of existing stockpiles, while Tehran insists on retaining its right to enrich under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has offered only temporary suspensions or down-blending in exchange for sanctions relief. Recent Iranian statements rejecting full transfer proposals and signaling potential escalation to higher enrichment levels if strikes resume have sustained uncertainty. Any breakthrough in verification commitments or stockpile handling before year-end could shift trader consensus toward yes, whereas stalled negotiations or renewed diplomatic friction would reinforce no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
音量
$194,984終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated indirectly through Oman following the 2025-2026 ceasefire, remain the central driver behind the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Washington continues to press for a permanent halt or long-term moratorium on enrichment activities along with removal of existing stockpiles, while Tehran insists on retaining its right to enrich under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has offered only temporary suspensions or down-blending in exchange for sanctions relief. Recent Iranian statements rejecting full transfer proposals and signaling potential escalation to higher enrichment levels if strikes resume have sustained uncertainty. Any breakthrough in verification commitments or stockpile handling before year-end could shift trader consensus toward yes, whereas stalled negotiations or renewed diplomatic friction would reinforce no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$194,984終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, mediated indirectly through Oman following the 2025-2026 ceasefire, remain the central driver behind the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Washington continues to press for a permanent halt or long-term moratorium on enrichment activities along with removal of existing stockpiles, while Tehran insists on retaining its right to enrich under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has offered only temporary suspensions or down-blending in exchange for sanctions relief. Recent Iranian statements rejecting full transfer proposals and signaling potential escalation to higher enrichment levels if strikes resume have sustained uncertainty. Any breakthrough in verification commitments or stockpile handling before year-end could shift trader consensus toward yes, whereas stalled negotiations or renewed diplomatic friction would reinforce no.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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