**Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026.** Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$31,165,994 Vol.
2026/08/15
5月8日
いいえ
5月24日
いいえ
5月31日
いいえ
6月8日
いいえ
6月9日
いいえ
6月10日
いいえ
6月11日
いいえ
6月12日
いいえ
6月13日
いいえ
6月14日
いいえ
6月15日
いいえ
6月30日
いいえ
7月7日
いいえ
7月15日
いいえ
7月24日
いいえ
7月31日
いいえ
8月15日
いいえ
8月31日
いいえ
9月30日
はい
$31,165,994 Vol.
5月8日
$495,248 Vol.
いいえ
5月24日
$570,943 Vol.
いいえ
5月31日
$2,509,870 Vol.
いいえ
6月8日
$1,100,436 Vol.
いいえ
6月9日
$1,251,540 Vol.
いいえ
6月10日
$1,045,931 Vol.
いいえ
6月11日
$452,640 Vol.
いいえ
6月12日
$147,791 Vol.
いいえ
6月13日
$117,282 Vol.
いいえ
6月14日
$787,296 Vol.
いいえ
6月15日
$5,651,394 Vol.
いいえ
6月30日
$4,823,492 Vol.
いいえ
7月7日
$199,595 Vol.
いいえ
7月15日
$1,770,056 Vol.
いいえ
7月24日
$821,200 Vol.
いいえ
7月31日
$3,278,470 Vol.
いいえ
8月15日
$1,008,696 Vol.
いいえ
8月31日
$1,561,278 Vol.
いいえ
9月30日
$3,572,835 Vol.
はい
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026.** Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
音量
$31,165,994終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026.** Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$31,165,994終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
**Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026.** Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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