Traders assign a 96.4% implied probability that Trump will not insult Xi by the end of the summit, reflecting expectations of structured diplomatic protocols and advance preparation that typically govern bilateral meetings between the US and China. High-stakes economic negotiations, trade policy coordination, and alliance signaling create strong incentives for both sides to maintain formal decorum and avoid personal remarks that could derail outcomes. Historical patterns of presidential visits show that public statements are tightly scripted, with staff vetting reducing the chance of spontaneous comments. Remaining uncertainty stems from the unpredictable nature of live press interactions or last-minute schedule changes, though these have rarely produced direct insults in comparable past summits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/07
はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/07
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Xi Jinping between the first calendar date (ET) and the final calendar date (ET) of Xi's visit to the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. Qualifying insults may be issued on any calendar day (ET) of the visit.
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the visit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 96.4% implied probability that Trump will not insult Xi by the end of the summit, reflecting expectations of structured diplomatic protocols and advance preparation that typically govern bilateral meetings between the US and China. High-stakes economic negotiations, trade policy coordination, and alliance signaling create strong incentives for both sides to maintain formal decorum and avoid personal remarks that could derail outcomes. Historical patterns of presidential visits show that public statements are tightly scripted, with staff vetting reducing the chance of spontaneous comments. Remaining uncertainty stems from the unpredictable nature of live press interactions or last-minute schedule changes, though these have rarely produced direct insults in comparable past summits.
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Xi Jinping between the first calendar date (ET) and the final calendar date (ET) of Xi's visit to the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. Qualifying insults may be issued on any calendar day (ET) of the visit.
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the visit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Xi Jinping between the first calendar date (ET) and the final calendar date (ET) of Xi's visit to the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. Qualifying insults may be issued on any calendar day (ET) of the visit.
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the visit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 17, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$319終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 6:02 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Xi Jinping between the first calendar date (ET) and the final calendar date (ET) of Xi's visit to the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. Qualifying insults may be issued on any calendar day (ET) of the visit.
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the visit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 96.4% implied probability that Trump will not insult Xi by the end of the summit, reflecting expectations of structured diplomatic protocols and advance preparation that typically govern bilateral meetings between the US and China. High-stakes economic negotiations, trade policy coordination, and alliance signaling create strong incentives for both sides to maintain formal decorum and avoid personal remarks that could derail outcomes. Historical patterns of presidential visits show that public statements are tightly scripted, with staff vetting reducing the chance of spontaneous comments. Remaining uncertainty stems from the unpredictable nature of live press interactions or last-minute schedule changes, though these have rarely produced direct insults in comparable past summits.
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Xi Jinping between the first calendar date (ET) and the final calendar date (ET) of Xi's visit to the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. Qualifying insults may be issued on any calendar day (ET) of the visit.
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the visit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Xi Jinping between the first calendar date (ET) and the final calendar date (ET) of Xi's visit to the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. Qualifying insults may be issued on any calendar day (ET) of the visit.
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the visit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$319終了日
2026/10/08マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 6:02 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.4% implied probability that Trump will not insult Xi by the end of the summit, reflecting expectations of structured diplomatic protocols and advance preparation that typically govern bilateral meetings between the US and China. High-stakes economic negotiations, trade policy coordination, and alliance signaling create strong incentives for both sides to maintain formal decorum and avoid personal remarks that could derail outcomes. Historical patterns of presidential visits show that public statements are tightly scripted, with staff vetting reducing the chance of spontaneous comments. Remaining uncertainty stems from the unpredictable nature of live press interactions or last-minute schedule changes, though these have rarely produced direct insults in comparable past summits.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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