Heightened tensions from the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026, coupled with renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, shape trader assessments of Israeli airspace closure risks. Israeli authorities closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times earlier in 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with EASA and other regulators maintaining elevated threat advisories for potential strikes or proxy actions by groups such as Hezbollah. As of mid-August the airspace remains open with Ben Gurion operations continuing under monitoring, though many carriers limit or avoid flights amid short-notice disruption concerns. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter closure probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,104,495 Vol.
2026/07/15
8月31日
3%
$27,104,495 Vol.
8月31日
$1,072,615 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened tensions from the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026, coupled with renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, shape trader assessments of Israeli airspace closure risks. Israeli authorities closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times earlier in 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with EASA and other regulators maintaining elevated threat advisories for potential strikes or proxy actions by groups such as Hezbollah. As of mid-August the airspace remains open with Ben Gurion operations continuing under monitoring, though many carriers limit or avoid flights amid short-notice disruption concerns. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter closure probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
音量
$27,104,495終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened tensions from the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026, coupled with renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, shape trader assessments of Israeli airspace closure risks. Israeli authorities closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times earlier in 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with EASA and other regulators maintaining elevated threat advisories for potential strikes or proxy actions by groups such as Hezbollah. As of mid-August the airspace remains open with Ben Gurion operations continuing under monitoring, though many carriers limit or avoid flights amid short-notice disruption concerns. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter closure probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$27,104,495終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened tensions from the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026, coupled with renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, shape trader assessments of Israeli airspace closure risks. Israeli authorities closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times earlier in 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with EASA and other regulators maintaining elevated threat advisories for potential strikes or proxy actions by groups such as Hezbollah. As of mid-August the airspace remains open with Ben Gurion operations continuing under monitoring, though many carriers limit or avoid flights amid short-notice disruption concerns. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter closure probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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