Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, including large-scale strikes initiated in late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, have prompted repeated airspace restrictions across the region for security reasons. Israeli authorities closed civil aviation operations in the Tel Aviv FIR following these events, with international advisories from EASA and other bodies extending cautionary measures into June 2026 amid persistent risks of retaliation or escalation. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, military developments, and any announcements on flight resumptions or new shutdowns, as further exchanges could sustain or intensify closures while de-escalation might enable reopening. Historical patterns of rapid regional airspace adjustments during similar conflicts inform assessments of near-term outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,005,364 Vol.
2026/06/15
June 14
4%
June 15
8%
6月30日
18%
$15,005,364 Vol.
June 14
$269,046 Vol.
4%
June 15
$5,027,178 Vol.
8%
6月30日
$2,129,139 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, including large-scale strikes initiated in late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, have prompted repeated airspace restrictions across the region for security reasons. Israeli authorities closed civil aviation operations in the Tel Aviv FIR following these events, with international advisories from EASA and other bodies extending cautionary measures into June 2026 amid persistent risks of retaliation or escalation. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, military developments, and any announcements on flight resumptions or new shutdowns, as further exchanges could sustain or intensify closures while de-escalation might enable reopening. Historical patterns of rapid regional airspace adjustments during similar conflicts inform assessments of near-term outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
音量
$15,005,364終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, including large-scale strikes initiated in late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, have prompted repeated airspace restrictions across the region for security reasons. Israeli authorities closed civil aviation operations in the Tel Aviv FIR following these events, with international advisories from EASA and other bodies extending cautionary measures into June 2026 amid persistent risks of retaliation or escalation. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, military developments, and any announcements on flight resumptions or new shutdowns, as further exchanges could sustain or intensify closures while de-escalation might enable reopening. Historical patterns of rapid regional airspace adjustments during similar conflicts inform assessments of near-term outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$15,005,364終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, including large-scale strikes initiated in late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, have prompted repeated airspace restrictions across the region for security reasons. Israeli authorities closed civil aviation operations in the Tel Aviv FIR following these events, with international advisories from EASA and other bodies extending cautionary measures into June 2026 amid persistent risks of retaliation or escalation. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, military developments, and any announcements on flight resumptions or new shutdowns, as further exchanges could sustain or intensify closures while de-escalation might enable reopening. Historical patterns of rapid regional airspace adjustments during similar conflicts inform assessments of near-term outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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