Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP preliminary release on August 17 anchors current pricing, with trader consensus favoring subdued expansion amid lingering Middle East energy-price pressures that have weighed on terms of trade, corporate margins, and household real income. Recent forecasts range from 0.3% to 1.67% QoQ annualized, reflecting a modest rebound from Q1’s confirmed 0.5% QoQ print driven by steady wage gains, private consumption, and auto/tech export demand, yet tempered by higher import costs and softer business investment. The 0.0–0.8% bin leads at 47% implied probability because markets price in these countervailing forces and the narrow window before data resolution, while the 1.6–2.4% interval at 27.4% captures upside revisions in professional surveys.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0.0%–0.8% 47%
1.6%–2.4% 27.6%
0.8%–1.6% 22%
2.4%–3.2% 5.1%
$45,547 Vol.
$45,547 Vol.
2026/08/17
<-2.4%
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
2%
0.0%–0.8%
47%
0.8%–1.6%
22%
1.6%–2.4%
28%
2.4%–3.2%
5%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 47%
1.6%–2.4% 27.6%
0.8%–1.6% 22%
2.4%–3.2% 5.1%
$45,547 Vol.
$45,547 Vol.
2026/08/17
<-2.4%
$1,628 Vol.
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,792 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$2,558 Vol.
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,135 Vol.
2%
0.0%–0.8%
$15,850 Vol.
47%
0.8%–1.6%
$13,104 Vol.
22%
1.6%–2.4%
$1,764 Vol.
28%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,726 Vol.
5%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,137 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$853 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP preliminary release on August 17 anchors current pricing, with trader consensus favoring subdued expansion amid lingering Middle East energy-price pressures that have weighed on terms of trade, corporate margins, and household real income. Recent forecasts range from 0.3% to 1.67% QoQ annualized, reflecting a modest rebound from Q1’s confirmed 0.5% QoQ print driven by steady wage gains, private consumption, and auto/tech export demand, yet tempered by higher import costs and softer business investment. The 0.0–0.8% bin leads at 47% implied probability because markets price in these countervailing forces and the narrow window before data resolution, while the 1.6–2.4% interval at 27.4% captures upside revisions in professional surveys.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
マーケット開始日： May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
音量
$45,547終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP preliminary release on August 17 anchors current pricing, with trader consensus favoring subdued expansion amid lingering Middle East energy-price pressures that have weighed on terms of trade, corporate margins, and household real income. Recent forecasts range from 0.3% to 1.67% QoQ annualized, reflecting a modest rebound from Q1’s confirmed 0.5% QoQ print driven by steady wage gains, private consumption, and auto/tech export demand, yet tempered by higher import costs and softer business investment. The 0.0–0.8% bin leads at 47% implied probability because markets price in these countervailing forces and the narrow window before data resolution, while the 1.6–2.4% interval at 27.4% captures upside revisions in professional surveys.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
音量
$45,547終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP preliminary release on August 17 anchors current pricing, with trader consensus favoring subdued expansion amid lingering Middle East energy-price pressures that have weighed on terms of trade, corporate margins, and household real income. Recent forecasts range from 0.3% to 1.67% QoQ annualized, reflecting a modest rebound from Q1’s confirmed 0.5% QoQ print driven by steady wage gains, private consumption, and auto/tech export demand, yet tempered by higher import costs and softer business investment. The 0.0–0.8% bin leads at 47% implied probability because markets price in these countervailing forces and the narrow window before data resolution, while the 1.6–2.4% interval at 27.4% captures upside revisions in professional surveys.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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