Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, including the incumbent's unopposed 2024 general election win. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating Thomas Massie with support from pro-Trump super PACs and an endorsement from the former president, positioning him as the clear general election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Melissa Strange. The district's northeastern Kentucky geography, encompassing suburban and rural areas with limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory could face realistic pressure only from an unforeseen scandal, significantly reduced turnout, or late external events within the November 3 resolution window, though historical patterns in similarly leaned seats suggest such shifts remain uncommon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$34,288 Vol.
$34,288 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
93%
民主党
8%
$34,288 Vol.
$34,288 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$24,877 Vol.
93%
民主党
$9,412 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, including the incumbent's unopposed 2024 general election win. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating Thomas Massie with support from pro-Trump super PACs and an endorsement from the former president, positioning him as the clear general election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Melissa Strange. The district's northeastern Kentucky geography, encompassing suburban and rural areas with limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory could face realistic pressure only from an unforeseen scandal, significantly reduced turnout, or late external events within the November 3 resolution window, though historical patterns in similarly leaned seats suggest such shifts remain uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$34,288終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, including the incumbent's unopposed 2024 general election win. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating Thomas Massie with support from pro-Trump super PACs and an endorsement from the former president, positioning him as the clear general election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Melissa Strange. The district's northeastern Kentucky geography, encompassing suburban and rural areas with limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory could face realistic pressure only from an unforeseen scandal, significantly reduced turnout, or late external events within the November 3 resolution window, though historical patterns in similarly leaned seats suggest such shifts remain uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$34,288終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, including the incumbent's unopposed 2024 general election win. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating Thomas Massie with support from pro-Trump super PACs and an endorsement from the former president, positioning him as the clear general election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Melissa Strange. The district's northeastern Kentucky geography, encompassing suburban and rural areas with limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory could face realistic pressure only from an unforeseen scandal, significantly reduced turnout, or late external events within the November 3 resolution window, though historical patterns in similarly leaned seats suggest such shifts remain uncommon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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