A Paris appeals court on July 7, 2026, upheld Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction but shortened her public-office ban, preserving her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election while imposing a one-year electronic monitoring sentence. Le Pen immediately announced her candidacy and filed an appeal to the Court of Cassation, which suspends enforcement of the ankle-monitor order under French procedure. This suspension, combined with the higher court’s expected timeline extending into 2027, has led traders to assign a 60% implied probability that Le Pen will not be required to wear the device before the election. The outcome hinges on the Cassation ruling’s timing and scope, as well as any adjustments a specialized judge might later apply to monitoring conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2027/04/17
はい
新規
新規
2027/04/17
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A Paris appeals court on July 7, 2026, upheld Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction but shortened her public-office ban, preserving her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election while imposing a one-year electronic monitoring sentence. Le Pen immediately announced her candidacy and filed an appeal to the Court of Cassation, which suspends enforcement of the ankle-monitor order under French procedure. This suspension, combined with the higher court’s expected timeline extending into 2027, has led traders to assign a 60% implied probability that Le Pen will not be required to wear the device before the election. The outcome hinges on the Cassation ruling’s timing and scope, as well as any adjustments a specialized judge might later apply to monitoring conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 9, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
音量
$981終了日
2027/04/17マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A Paris appeals court on July 7, 2026, upheld Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction but shortened her public-office ban, preserving her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election while imposing a one-year electronic monitoring sentence. Le Pen immediately announced her candidacy and filed an appeal to the Court of Cassation, which suspends enforcement of the ankle-monitor order under French procedure. This suspension, combined with the higher court’s expected timeline extending into 2027, has led traders to assign a 60% implied probability that Le Pen will not be required to wear the device before the election. The outcome hinges on the Cassation ruling’s timing and scope, as well as any adjustments a specialized judge might later apply to monitoring conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$981終了日
2027/04/17マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A Paris appeals court on July 7, 2026, upheld Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction but shortened her public-office ban, preserving her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election while imposing a one-year electronic monitoring sentence. Le Pen immediately announced her candidacy and filed an appeal to the Court of Cassation, which suspends enforcement of the ankle-monitor order under French procedure. This suspension, combined with the higher court’s expected timeline extending into 2027, has led traders to assign a 60% implied probability that Le Pen will not be required to wear the device before the election. The outcome hinges on the Cassation ruling’s timing and scope, as well as any adjustments a specialized judge might later apply to monitoring conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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