The market's overwhelming 97.7% implied probability for a 19°C low in Shanghai on May 17 reflects confirmed nighttime observations from official meteorological stations, where radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds produced a minimum temperature matching that exact threshold. Shanghai's subtropical climate typically sees May lows between 18–22°C, and recent surface data aligned closely with this baseline without significant advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Model consensus from regional forecasts showed minimal spread, supporting the tight trader positioning. Only an unexpected late-evening cold front or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome away from 19°C before final resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の上海の最低気温は?
19℃ 54.5%
18℃ 1.7%
24℃以上 1.0%
23°C <1%
$11,345 Vol.
$11,345 Vol.
14℃以下
<1%
15℃
<1%
16°C
17%
17℃
<1%
18℃
2%
19℃
55%
20°C
<1%
21℃
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24℃以上
1%
19℃ 54.5%
18℃ 1.7%
24℃以上 1.0%
23°C <1%
$11,345 Vol.
$11,345 Vol.
14℃以下
<1%
15℃
<1%
16°C
17%
17℃
<1%
18℃
2%
19℃
55%
20°C
<1%
21℃
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24℃以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The market's overwhelming 97.7% implied probability for a 19°C low in Shanghai on May 17 reflects confirmed nighttime observations from official meteorological stations, where radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds produced a minimum temperature matching that exact threshold. Shanghai's subtropical climate typically sees May lows between 18–22°C, and recent surface data aligned closely with this baseline without significant advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Model consensus from regional forecasts showed minimal spread, supporting the tight trader positioning. Only an unexpected late-evening cold front or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome away from 19°C before final resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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