**Forecast consensus for Shanghai on September 10, 2026, centers on a daily minimum near 22°C, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple models and official-style forecasts (including Chinese meteorological sources and international ensembles) project a low in the 20–24°C range, with 22°C and 23°C as the most frequent central estimates. Light rain or showers, increased cloud cover, and northeasterly winds are expected to moderate overnight cooling while keeping daytime highs around 28–30°C. Recent conditions on September 9 showed overnight lows near 22–24°C under mostly cloudy skies and light variable winds, providing a baseline for limited further cooling. The anticipated precipitation and cloudiness on the 10th act as the primary near-term driver, preventing sharper radiational cooling that might otherwise push the minimum lower. Historical September climatology for Shanghai supports lows typically in the low-20s°C during this period, with the current pattern consistent with early-autumn moderation rather than an anomalous cold intrusion. Model agreement remains reasonably tight for this short-range forecast, though minor variations in rain timing or wind strength could shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Updated official guidance from agencies such as the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory or NMC runs will likely refine the outcome ahead of resolution. The market distribution—favoring 22°C while giving meaningful weight to 21°C and 23°C—reflects this narrow uncertainty band in trader assessments backed by real capital.