Recent Federal Reserve stress tests underscore the resilience of the 32 largest U.S. banks, which absorbed a hypothetical $708 billion in losses under a severe recession scenario—including 10% unemployment, 30% home price declines, and 39% commercial real estate drops—yet saw aggregate common equity Tier 1 capital ratios fall just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum. Financial stability reports highlight historically high regulatory capital levels, improved liquidity, and contained funding risks, with only isolated small-bank failures in 2026 and no systemic distress signals. These factors support the market-implied 93% probability against a major bailout before 2027. A sharp unanticipated downturn or concentrated losses in credit cards and commercial real estate could still test capital buffers, though even the Fed's adverse scenario left ample headroom.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに米国の大手銀行を救済しますか？
2027年までに米国の大手銀行を救済しますか？
はい
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Recent Federal Reserve stress tests underscore the resilience of the 32 largest U.S. banks, which absorbed a hypothetical $708 billion in losses under a severe recession scenario—including 10% unemployment, 30% home price declines, and 39% commercial real estate drops—yet saw aggregate common equity Tier 1 capital ratios fall just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum. Financial stability reports highlight historically high regulatory capital levels, improved liquidity, and contained funding risks, with only isolated small-bank failures in 2026 and no systemic distress signals. These factors support the market-implied 93% probability against a major bailout before 2027. A sharp unanticipated downturn or concentrated losses in credit cards and commercial real estate could still test capital buffers, though even the Fed's adverse scenario left ample headroom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
音量
$4,183終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Recent Federal Reserve stress tests underscore the resilience of the 32 largest U.S. banks, which absorbed a hypothetical $708 billion in losses under a severe recession scenario—including 10% unemployment, 30% home price declines, and 39% commercial real estate drops—yet saw aggregate common equity Tier 1 capital ratios fall just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum. Financial stability reports highlight historically high regulatory capital levels, improved liquidity, and contained funding risks, with only isolated small-bank failures in 2026 and no systemic distress signals. These factors support the market-implied 93% probability against a major bailout before 2027. A sharp unanticipated downturn or concentrated losses in credit cards and commercial real estate could still test capital buffers, though even the Fed's adverse scenario left ample headroom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
音量
$4,183終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent Federal Reserve stress tests underscore the resilience of the 32 largest U.S. banks, which absorbed a hypothetical $708 billion in losses under a severe recession scenario—including 10% unemployment, 30% home price declines, and 39% commercial real estate drops—yet saw aggregate common equity Tier 1 capital ratios fall just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum. Financial stability reports highlight historically high regulatory capital levels, improved liquidity, and contained funding risks, with only isolated small-bank failures in 2026 and no systemic distress signals. These factors support the market-implied 93% probability against a major bailout before 2027. A sharp unanticipated downturn or concentrated losses in credit cards and commercial real estate could still test capital buffers, though even the Fed's adverse scenario left ample headroom.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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