Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 growth amid mixed high-frequency indicators. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty beyond the July deadline weighs on private investment and business confidence, while weak domestic demand and gradual labor market softening limit upside. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation trajectory support a baseline around 1.0-2.0%, with nearshoring-related exports providing partial offset. Market-implied odds reflect closely contested outcomes between 1.0-2.5%, as Q3 data releases and any early USMCA signals could shift the distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 29%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 12%
$12,297 Vol.
$12,297 Vol.
2026/10/30
<0.5%
3%
0.5-1.0%
5%
1.0-1.5%
29%
1.5-2.0%
34%
2.0-2.5%
25%
2.5-3.0%
12%
3.0-3.5%
4%
3.5%+
<1%
1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 29%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 12%
$12,297 Vol.
$12,297 Vol.
2026/10/30
<0.5%
$211 Vol.
3%
0.5-1.0%
$193 Vol.
5%
1.0-1.5%
$2,231 Vol.
29%
1.5-2.0%
$2,335 Vol.
34%
2.0-2.5%
$6,513 Vol.
25%
2.5-3.0%
$364 Vol.
12%
3.0-3.5%
$248 Vol.
4%
3.5%+
$203 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 growth amid mixed high-frequency indicators. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty beyond the July deadline weighs on private investment and business confidence, while weak domestic demand and gradual labor market softening limit upside. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation trajectory support a baseline around 1.0-2.0%, with nearshoring-related exports providing partial offset. Market-implied odds reflect closely contested outcomes between 1.0-2.5%, as Q3 data releases and any early USMCA signals could shift the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$12,297終了日
2026/10/30マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 growth amid mixed high-frequency indicators. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty beyond the July deadline weighs on private investment and business confidence, while weak domestic demand and gradual labor market softening limit upside. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation trajectory support a baseline around 1.0-2.0%, with nearshoring-related exports providing partial offset. Market-implied odds reflect closely contested outcomes between 1.0-2.5%, as Q3 data releases and any early USMCA signals could shift the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$12,297終了日
2026/10/30マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 growth amid mixed high-frequency indicators. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty beyond the July deadline weighs on private investment and business confidence, while weak domestic demand and gradual labor market softening limit upside. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation trajectory support a baseline around 1.0-2.0%, with nearshoring-related exports providing partial offset. Market-implied odds reflect closely contested outcomes between 1.0-2.5%, as Q3 data releases and any early USMCA signals could shift the distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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