Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a rebound in investment and government spending. Major banks project full-year 2026 growth between 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, supported by AI-related capital expenditures and policy tailwinds, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pose downside risks. A sharper or prolonged oil shock could compress consumer spending and push growth closer to zero, representing the primary scenario that might still alter the current trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
2027/01/29
はい
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
2027/01/29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a rebound in investment and government spending. Major banks project full-year 2026 growth between 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, supported by AI-related capital expenditures and policy tailwinds, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pose downside risks. A sharper or prolonged oil shock could compress consumer spending and push growth closer to zero, representing the primary scenario that might still alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$26,508終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a rebound in investment and government spending. Major banks project full-year 2026 growth between 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, supported by AI-related capital expenditures and policy tailwinds, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pose downside risks. A sharper or prolonged oil shock could compress consumer spending and push growth closer to zero, representing the primary scenario that might still alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$26,508終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a rebound in investment and government spending. Major banks project full-year 2026 growth between 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, supported by AI-related capital expenditures and policy tailwinds, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pose downside risks. A sharper or prolonged oil shock could compress consumer spending and push growth closer to zero, representing the primary scenario that might still alter the current trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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