Strong first-half 2026 GDP readings, with Q1 growth at 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized per BEA data, combined with consensus forecasts of 2.1–2.2% for the full year from sources including the FOMC and S&P Global, underpin the 97.4% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in equipment and intellectual property, and a stable labor market have sustained positive momentum despite elevated inflation and energy price pressures. Traders' capital-backed consensus aligns with these verified indicators showing expansion near potential. Tail risks remain limited but include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt fiscal/monetary shifts that could trigger a deeper contraction, though current leading indicators and nowcasts point to continued above-zero growth through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2027/01/28
はい
3% 確率
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2027/01/28
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-half 2026 GDP readings, with Q1 growth at 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized per BEA data, combined with consensus forecasts of 2.1–2.2% for the full year from sources including the FOMC and S&P Global, underpin the 97.4% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in equipment and intellectual property, and a stable labor market have sustained positive momentum despite elevated inflation and energy price pressures. Traders' capital-backed consensus aligns with these verified indicators showing expansion near potential. Tail risks remain limited but include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt fiscal/monetary shifts that could trigger a deeper contraction, though current leading indicators and nowcasts point to continued above-zero growth through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$33,113終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-half 2026 GDP readings, with Q1 growth at 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized per BEA data, combined with consensus forecasts of 2.1–2.2% for the full year from sources including the FOMC and S&P Global, underpin the 97.4% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in equipment and intellectual property, and a stable labor market have sustained positive momentum despite elevated inflation and energy price pressures. Traders' capital-backed consensus aligns with these verified indicators showing expansion near potential. Tail risks remain limited but include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt fiscal/monetary shifts that could trigger a deeper contraction, though current leading indicators and nowcasts point to continued above-zero growth through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
音量
$33,113終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Strong first-half 2026 GDP readings, with Q1 growth at 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized per BEA data, combined with consensus forecasts of 2.1–2.2% for the full year from sources including the FOMC and S&P Global, underpin the 97.4% market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in equipment and intellectual property, and a stable labor market have sustained positive momentum despite elevated inflation and energy price pressures. Traders' capital-backed consensus aligns with these verified indicators showing expansion near potential. Tail risks remain limited but include sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts or abrupt fiscal/monetary shifts that could trigger a deeper contraction, though current leading indicators and nowcasts point to continued above-zero growth through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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