The strong Democratic tilt of New Jersey's 11th District, reinforced by voter registration advantages and consistent past performance, anchors the current market positioning. Democrat Analilia Mejia secured the seat in the April 2026 special election with roughly 62 percent of the vote after Mikie Sherrill's resignation to become governor, establishing her as the early favorite for the November 2026 general election. Historical results show double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting Republican pathways despite any national headwinds. A significant shift in turnout patterns, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican wave could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability events based on the district's structural makeup.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
9%
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$12,046 Vol.
93%
共和党
$2,209 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic tilt of New Jersey's 11th District, reinforced by voter registration advantages and consistent past performance, anchors the current market positioning. Democrat Analilia Mejia secured the seat in the April 2026 special election with roughly 62 percent of the vote after Mikie Sherrill's resignation to become governor, establishing her as the early favorite for the November 2026 general election. Historical results show double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting Republican pathways despite any national headwinds. A significant shift in turnout patterns, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican wave could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability events based on the district's structural makeup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$14,255終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic tilt of New Jersey's 11th District, reinforced by voter registration advantages and consistent past performance, anchors the current market positioning. Democrat Analilia Mejia secured the seat in the April 2026 special election with roughly 62 percent of the vote after Mikie Sherrill's resignation to become governor, establishing her as the early favorite for the November 2026 general election. Historical results show double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting Republican pathways despite any national headwinds. A significant shift in turnout patterns, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican wave could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability events based on the district's structural makeup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$14,255終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic tilt of New Jersey's 11th District, reinforced by voter registration advantages and consistent past performance, anchors the current market positioning. Democrat Analilia Mejia secured the seat in the April 2026 special election with roughly 62 percent of the vote after Mikie Sherrill's resignation to become governor, establishing her as the early favorite for the November 2026 general election. Historical results show double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting Republican pathways despite any national headwinds. A significant shift in turnout patterns, an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican wave could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability events based on the district's structural makeup.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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