Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory flipping the suburban Nassau County seat and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $6 million compared to Jeanine Driscoll’s roughly $665,000. Democratic voter registration edges and recent forecasts projecting an 11-point margin reinforce trader consensus at 91 percent for Gillen. The district’s history of narrow flips keeps it competitive, yet limited recent polling and Driscoll’s profile as Hempstead tax receiver have not shifted momentum. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, elevated GOP turnout on Long Island, or unexpected campaign developments before November 3.