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icon for NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

icon for NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Labour 0-5% 45%

Labour 10-15% 39%

National 5-10% 37%

National 0-5% 36%

Polymarket
新規

Labour 0-5% 45%

Labour 10-15% 39%

National 5-10% 37%

National 0-5% 36%

Polymarket
新規
icon for Labour 15%+

Labour 15%+

$0 Vol.

21%

icon for Labour 10-15%

Labour 10-15%

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Labour 5-10%

Labour 5-10%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Labour 0-5%

Labour 0-5%

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for National 0-5%

National 0-5%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for National 5-10%

National 5-10%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for National 10%+

National 10%+

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for 他の政党が勝利

他の政党が勝利

$0 Vol.

22%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.

This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.

If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
音量
$0
終了日
2026/11/07
マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.

This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.

If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
音量
$0
終了日
2026/11/07
マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Labour 0-5%」で45%、次いで「Labour 10-15%」が40%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、45¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に45%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Apr 30, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?」の現在のフロントランナーは「Labour 0-5%」で45%であり、市場がこの結果に45%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Labour 10-15%」で40%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。