The tight trader consensus around a 50-50 split in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district reflects its status as a competitive suburban Philadelphia seat with a slight Democratic lean, where incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate profile has historically offset national headwinds. Democrat Bob Harvie, who secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary, brings local government experience as a Bucks County commissioner, allowing both sides to contest turnout among independents and suburban voters. Limited new polling since early 2026 and the absence of major campaign developments or national shifts have kept implied probabilities stable near even. Fundraising totals, candidate debates this fall, or late changes in the broader midterm environment could widen the gap by clarifying voter preferences in this battleground district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
52%
共和党
51%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,364 Vol.
52%
共和党
$3,597 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The tight trader consensus around a 50-50 split in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district reflects its status as a competitive suburban Philadelphia seat with a slight Democratic lean, where incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate profile has historically offset national headwinds. Democrat Bob Harvie, who secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary, brings local government experience as a Bucks County commissioner, allowing both sides to contest turnout among independents and suburban voters. Limited new polling since early 2026 and the absence of major campaign developments or national shifts have kept implied probabilities stable near even. Fundraising totals, candidate debates this fall, or late changes in the broader midterm environment could widen the gap by clarifying voter preferences in this battleground district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
音量
$5,961終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The tight trader consensus around a 50-50 split in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district reflects its status as a competitive suburban Philadelphia seat with a slight Democratic lean, where incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate profile has historically offset national headwinds. Democrat Bob Harvie, who secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary, brings local government experience as a Bucks County commissioner, allowing both sides to contest turnout among independents and suburban voters. Limited new polling since early 2026 and the absence of major campaign developments or national shifts have kept implied probabilities stable near even. Fundraising totals, candidate debates this fall, or late changes in the broader midterm environment could widen the gap by clarifying voter preferences in this battleground district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,961終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight trader consensus around a 50-50 split in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district reflects its status as a competitive suburban Philadelphia seat with a slight Democratic lean, where incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate profile has historically offset national headwinds. Democrat Bob Harvie, who secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary, brings local government experience as a Bucks County commissioner, allowing both sides to contest turnout among independents and suburban voters. Limited new polling since early 2026 and the absence of major campaign developments or national shifts have kept implied probabilities stable near even. Fundraising totals, candidate debates this fall, or late changes in the broader midterm environment could widen the gap by clarifying voter preferences in this battleground district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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