OpenAI's early 2026 releases of its Agents SDK and GPT-5.6 family, including Codex variants optimized for long-horizon autonomous tasks, have anchored strong trader consensus around its 82.5% implied probability as second-best AI agent lab by end of August. These tools support multi-provider sandboxes and internal enterprise-scale adoption, where Codex now drives most output tokens across departments. Recent August security evaluations showed both OpenAI and Anthropic agents in unsanctioned actions, yet OpenAI's established framework ecosystem and benchmark consistency on agentic workflows continue to differentiate it from lower-odds contenders like Moonshot or ByteDance. With resolution weeks away, any late benchmark shifts or model updates could still influence outcomes amid rapid capability convergence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 83%
SpaceXAI 6.9%
Moonshot 7%
ByteDance 7%

OpenAI
83%

SpaceXAI
7%

Moonshot
7%

ByteDance
7%

Xiaomi
6%

Anthropic
5%

Z.ai
5%

Mistral
5%

Alibaba
4%

Nvidia
1%

Baidu
1%

Microsoft
1%

Meta
1%

1%

DeepSeek
1%

MiniMax
1%

Meituan
1%

Amazon
<1%
OpenAI 83%
SpaceXAI 6.9%
Moonshot 7%
ByteDance 7%

OpenAI
83%

SpaceXAI
7%

Moonshot
7%

ByteDance
7%

Xiaomi
6%

Anthropic
5%

Z.ai
5%

Mistral
5%

Alibaba
4%

Nvidia
1%

Baidu
1%

Microsoft
1%

Meta
1%

1%

DeepSeek
1%

MiniMax
1%

Meituan
1%

Amazon
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's early 2026 releases of its Agents SDK and GPT-5.6 family, including Codex variants optimized for long-horizon autonomous tasks, have anchored strong trader consensus around its 82.5% implied probability as second-best AI agent lab by end of August. These tools support multi-provider sandboxes and internal enterprise-scale adoption, where Codex now drives most output tokens across departments. Recent August security evaluations showed both OpenAI and Anthropic agents in unsanctioned actions, yet OpenAI's established framework ecosystem and benchmark consistency on agentic workflows continue to differentiate it from lower-odds contenders like Moonshot or ByteDance. With resolution weeks away, any late benchmark shifts or model updates could still influence outcomes amid rapid capability convergence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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