Strong semiconductor export momentum and upward revisions to full-year 2026 GDP forecasts underpin the tight contest between the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% bands for South Korea’s Q3 YoY growth, with implied probabilities clustered at 35.5% and 32.5%. Q2 delivered 3.7% YoY expansion—exceeding expectations—on 0.6% QoQ growth fueled by IT shipments that offset softer domestic demand and Middle East-related energy pressures. Analyst consensus now centers near 3.0–3.3% for calendar 2026, reflecting sustained global AI-driven chip demand that has lifted net exports, though moderating quarterly momentum, rising CPI near 3.1%, and potential Bank of Korea policy caution introduce downside risks to consumption and investment. Key upcoming catalysts include August–September export and industrial production releases that could shift the balance between these closely matched ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3.0～3.4％ 36%
2.5～2.9％ 32%
3.5〜3.9% 21.4%
2.0〜2.4％ 11%
$37,974 Vol.
$37,974 Vol.
2026/10/27
2.0％未満
3%
2.0〜2.4％
11%
2.5～2.9％
32%
3.0～3.4％
36%
3.5〜3.9%
21%
4.0〜4.4％
1%
4.5～4.9%
1%
5.0％以上
1%
3.0～3.4％ 36%
2.5～2.9％ 32%
3.5〜3.9% 21.4%
2.0〜2.4％ 11%
$37,974 Vol.
$37,974 Vol.
2026/10/27
2.0％未満
$533 Vol.
3%
2.0〜2.4％
$11,847 Vol.
11%
2.5～2.9％
$3,551 Vol.
32%
3.0～3.4％
$20,153 Vol.
36%
3.5〜3.9%
$752 Vol.
21%
4.0〜4.4％
$507 Vol.
1%
4.5～4.9%
$317 Vol.
1%
5.0％以上
$314 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor export momentum and upward revisions to full-year 2026 GDP forecasts underpin the tight contest between the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% bands for South Korea’s Q3 YoY growth, with implied probabilities clustered at 35.5% and 32.5%. Q2 delivered 3.7% YoY expansion—exceeding expectations—on 0.6% QoQ growth fueled by IT shipments that offset softer domestic demand and Middle East-related energy pressures. Analyst consensus now centers near 3.0–3.3% for calendar 2026, reflecting sustained global AI-driven chip demand that has lifted net exports, though moderating quarterly momentum, rising CPI near 3.1%, and potential Bank of Korea policy caution introduce downside risks to consumption and investment. Key upcoming catalysts include August–September export and industrial production releases that could shift the balance between these closely matched ranges.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$37,974終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor export momentum and upward revisions to full-year 2026 GDP forecasts underpin the tight contest between the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% bands for South Korea’s Q3 YoY growth, with implied probabilities clustered at 35.5% and 32.5%. Q2 delivered 3.7% YoY expansion—exceeding expectations—on 0.6% QoQ growth fueled by IT shipments that offset softer domestic demand and Middle East-related energy pressures. Analyst consensus now centers near 3.0–3.3% for calendar 2026, reflecting sustained global AI-driven chip demand that has lifted net exports, though moderating quarterly momentum, rising CPI near 3.1%, and potential Bank of Korea policy caution introduce downside risks to consumption and investment. Key upcoming catalysts include August–September export and industrial production releases that could shift the balance between these closely matched ranges.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
音量
$37,974終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong semiconductor export momentum and upward revisions to full-year 2026 GDP forecasts underpin the tight contest between the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% bands for South Korea’s Q3 YoY growth, with implied probabilities clustered at 35.5% and 32.5%. Q2 delivered 3.7% YoY expansion—exceeding expectations—on 0.6% QoQ growth fueled by IT shipments that offset softer domestic demand and Middle East-related energy pressures. Analyst consensus now centers near 3.0–3.3% for calendar 2026, reflecting sustained global AI-driven chip demand that has lifted net exports, though moderating quarterly momentum, rising CPI near 3.1%, and potential Bank of Korea policy caution introduce downside risks to consumption and investment. Key upcoming catalysts include August–September export and industrial production releases that could shift the balance between these closely matched ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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