Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 31%
SpaceXAI 30%
アリババ 29%
OpenAI 27%

Anthropic
31%

SpaceXAI
30%

アリババ
29%

OpenAI
27%

Xiaomi
25%

24%

Z.ai
23%

Amazon
23%

バイドゥ
23%

バイトダンス
22%

MiniMax
22%

ムーンショット
22%

Meta
23%

Nvidia
24%

DeepSeek
22%

美団
22%

テンセント
21%

StepFun
20%

マイクロソフト
20%

Mistral
15%
Anthropic 31%
SpaceXAI 30%
アリババ 29%
OpenAI 27%

Anthropic
31%

SpaceXAI
30%

アリババ
29%

OpenAI
27%

Xiaomi
25%

24%

Z.ai
23%

Amazon
23%

バイドゥ
23%

バイトダンス
22%

MiniMax
22%

ムーンショット
22%

Meta
23%

Nvidia
24%

DeepSeek
22%

美団
22%

テンセント
21%

StepFun
20%

マイクロソフト
20%

Mistral
15%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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