OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release has driven its 71.7% implied probability by quickly claiming the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with scores around 1,797–1,800 Elo, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points on agentic frontend tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and image-to-code workflows. Traders view this as a strong signal of continued frontier leadership through mid-to-late September, given the model’s rapid community validation after its early-September launch. Anthropic’s 23.5% odds reflect its prior dominance and Fable 5.1’s strong but now-second-place standing, while lower probabilities for Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and others stem from competitive but trailing Pareto frontier positions without matching recent breakthroughs. The market’s short remaining window heightens sensitivity to any new model updates before month-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 71.7%
Anthropic 24%
SpaceXAI <1%
ムーンショット <1%
$141,449 Vol.
$141,449 Vol.
2026/09/30
OpenAI
72%
Anthropic
24%
SpaceXAI
1%
ムーンショット
1%
アリババ
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
テンセント
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 71.7%
Anthropic 24%
SpaceXAI <1%
ムーンショット <1%
$141,449 Vol.
$141,449 Vol.
2026/09/30
OpenAI
$26,784 Vol.
72%
Anthropic
$58,737 Vol.
24%
SpaceXAI
$6,591 Vol.
1%
ムーンショット
$20,259 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$8,527 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,801 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$3,137 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
$4,324 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$657 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release has driven its 71.7% implied probability by quickly claiming the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with scores around 1,797–1,800 Elo, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points on agentic frontend tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and image-to-code workflows. Traders view this as a strong signal of continued frontier leadership through mid-to-late September, given the model’s rapid community validation after its early-September launch. Anthropic’s 23.5% odds reflect its prior dominance and Fable 5.1’s strong but now-second-place standing, while lower probabilities for Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and others stem from competitive but trailing Pareto frontier positions without matching recent breakthroughs. The market’s short remaining window heightens sensitivity to any new model updates before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
音量
$141,449終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release has driven its 71.7% implied probability by quickly claiming the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with scores around 1,797–1,800 Elo, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points on agentic frontend tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and image-to-code workflows. Traders view this as a strong signal of continued frontier leadership through mid-to-late September, given the model’s rapid community validation after its early-September launch. Anthropic’s 23.5% odds reflect its prior dominance and Fable 5.1’s strong but now-second-place standing, while lower probabilities for Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and others stem from competitive but trailing Pareto frontier positions without matching recent breakthroughs. The market’s short remaining window heightens sensitivity to any new model updates before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$141,449終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETOpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release has driven its 71.7% implied probability by quickly claiming the top spot on Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with scores around 1,797–1,800 Elo, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 35 points on agentic frontend tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, and image-to-code workflows. Traders view this as a strong signal of continued frontier leadership through mid-to-late September, given the model’s rapid community validation after its early-September launch. Anthropic’s 23.5% odds reflect its prior dominance and Fable 5.1’s strong but now-second-place standing, while lower probabilities for Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and others stem from competitive but trailing Pareto frontier positions without matching recent breakthroughs. The market’s short remaining window heightens sensitivity to any new model updates before month-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問