Traders see the next Claude Opus release clustered in the final week of September because Anthropic has maintained a rapid cadence since Opus 5 launched on July 24, with the most recent major update being Fable 5.1 on September 1. Unconfirmed reports circulating in mid-September point to a possible September 17–18 drop or an end-of-month launch, creating the tight spread between September 22 and 25 outcomes. The 16.5% chance of no release by September 30 reflects caution around typical engineering and safety review timelines, while competitive pressure from other labs’ September model cycles adds urgency. Key near-term catalysts include any official Anthropic announcement or API identifier confirmation that could resolve the market quickly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月24日 28%
9月22日 20%
9月30日までにリリースなし 17%
9月25日 13%
9月17日
1%
9月18日
5%
9月19日
1%
9月20日
1%
9月21日
3%
9月22日
20%
9月23日
7%
9月24日
28%
9月25日
13%
9月26日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9月28日
8%
9月29日
11%
9月30日
11%
9月30日までにリリースなし
17%
9月24日 28%
9月22日 20%
9月30日までにリリースなし 17%
9月25日 13%
9月17日
1%
9月18日
5%
9月19日
1%
9月20日
1%
9月21日
3%
9月22日
20%
9月23日
7%
9月24日
28%
9月25日
13%
9月26日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9月28日
8%
9月29日
11%
9月30日
11%
9月30日までにリリースなし
17%
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the next Claude Opus release clustered in the final week of September because Anthropic has maintained a rapid cadence since Opus 5 launched on July 24, with the most recent major update being Fable 5.1 on September 1. Unconfirmed reports circulating in mid-September point to a possible September 17–18 drop or an end-of-month launch, creating the tight spread between September 22 and 25 outcomes. The 16.5% chance of no release by September 30 reflects caution around typical engineering and safety review timelines, while competitive pressure from other labs’ September model cycles adds urgency. Key near-term catalysts include any official Anthropic announcement or API identifier confirmation that could resolve the market quickly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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