**Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar faces Republican Tano Tijerina in the November 3, 2026, general election for Texas’s 28th congressional district, a South Texas seat covering Laredo and surrounding areas.** Recent polling averages show Cuellar ahead by roughly 6 points, with the most recent survey from late August placing him at 45% to Tijerina’s 34% and Green Party candidate Marlon Durán at 6%. The district was redrawn in 2025 to favor Republicans more strongly—Trump carried it by about 10 points in 2024—yet ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Cuellar’s incumbency, local name recognition, and edge in fundraising help sustain a narrow lead despite the map change and his prior legal case, which ended with a presidential pardon. Tijerina, a former Democrat and Webb County judge who won his primary decisively, positions the contest as a test of shifting Latino voter alignments in the region. The prediction market’s concentration of probability on Democratic margins between 3% and 12% reflects this closely contested dynamic, where further polling releases, campaign spending patterns, turnout efforts among key voting blocs, and any late national or local developments could widen or narrow the final spread before Election Day.