Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. Recent Siena polling from early August shows her leading Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman 49% to 39% among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys indicating a steady 6- to 10-point advantage. New York's partisan lean, Hochul's uncontested Democratic primary, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent's path to victory. Scenarios that could narrow this gap include unexpected scandals, sharp economic downturns, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by specific policy issues ahead of the November 3 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$94,564 Vol.
$94,564 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$94,564 Vol.
$94,564 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$45,515 Vol.
94%
共和党
$49,050 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. Recent Siena polling from early August shows her leading Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman 49% to 39% among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys indicating a steady 6- to 10-point advantage. New York's partisan lean, Hochul's uncontested Democratic primary, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent's path to victory. Scenarios that could narrow this gap include unexpected scandals, sharp economic downturns, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by specific policy issues ahead of the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
音量
$94,564終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. Recent Siena polling from early August shows her leading Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman 49% to 39% among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys indicating a steady 6- to 10-point advantage. New York's partisan lean, Hochul's uncontested Democratic primary, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent's path to victory. Scenarios that could narrow this gap include unexpected scandals, sharp economic downturns, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by specific policy issues ahead of the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$94,564終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. Recent Siena polling from early August shows her leading Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman 49% to 39% among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys indicating a steady 6- to 10-point advantage. New York's partisan lean, Hochul's uncontested Democratic primary, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent's path to victory. Scenarios that could narrow this gap include unexpected scandals, sharp economic downturns, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by specific policy issues ahead of the November 3 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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