Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro's dominant position in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, fueled by consistent 18-22 point polling leads over presumptive Republican nominee State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in recent surveys from Susquehanna, Quinnipiac, and Franklin & Marshall, underpins trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for a Democratic win. Shapiro's 60% job approval rating, massive fundraising advantage—including $10 million raised in early 2026 versus Garrity's far lower totals—and a weak GOP primary field with limited challengers like Doug Mastriano write-in efforts solidify his frontrunner status ahead of the May primary and November 3 general election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shapiro scandal, economic downturn eroding incumbency benefits, or an unexpected stronger Republican nominee emerging post-primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,165 Vol.
$17,165 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
6%
$17,165 Vol.
$17,165 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$6,411 Vol.
92%
共和党
$10,754 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro's dominant position in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, fueled by consistent 18-22 point polling leads over presumptive Republican nominee State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in recent surveys from Susquehanna, Quinnipiac, and Franklin & Marshall, underpins trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for a Democratic win. Shapiro's 60% job approval rating, massive fundraising advantage—including $10 million raised in early 2026 versus Garrity's far lower totals—and a weak GOP primary field with limited challengers like Doug Mastriano write-in efforts solidify his frontrunner status ahead of the May primary and November 3 general election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shapiro scandal, economic downturn eroding incumbency benefits, or an unexpected stronger Republican nominee emerging post-primary.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
音量
$17,165終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro's dominant position in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, fueled by consistent 18-22 point polling leads over presumptive Republican nominee State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in recent surveys from Susquehanna, Quinnipiac, and Franklin & Marshall, underpins trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for a Democratic win. Shapiro's 60% job approval rating, massive fundraising advantage—including $10 million raised in early 2026 versus Garrity's far lower totals—and a weak GOP primary field with limited challengers like Doug Mastriano write-in efforts solidify his frontrunner status ahead of the May primary and November 3 general election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shapiro scandal, economic downturn eroding incumbency benefits, or an unexpected stronger Republican nominee emerging post-primary.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$17,165終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro's dominant position in the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, fueled by consistent 18-22 point polling leads over presumptive Republican nominee State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in recent surveys from Susquehanna, Quinnipiac, and Franklin & Marshall, underpins trader consensus implying 91.5% odds for a Democratic win. Shapiro's 60% job approval rating, massive fundraising advantage—including $10 million raised in early 2026 versus Garrity's far lower totals—and a weak GOP primary field with limited challengers like Doug Mastriano write-in efforts solidify his frontrunner status ahead of the May primary and November 3 general election. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Shapiro scandal, economic downturn eroding incumbency benefits, or an unexpected stronger Republican nominee emerging post-primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問