No comprehensive federal AI safety legislation has advanced through both chambers of Congress as of August 2026, despite multiple introductions in the 119th Congress such as the Great American AI Act discussion draft and proposals for frontier model testing, transparency requirements, and incident reporting. Legislative momentum remains limited by ongoing disagreements over federal preemption of state AI rules, the breadth of any safety mandates, and competing priorities ahead of the midterms. The administration has prioritized innovation-focused executive actions and a national framework emphasizing voluntary measures over new binding obligations. With roughly four months left in the calendar year, traders see the compressed timeline and absence of floor votes or committee breakthroughs as major barriers to enactment before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
10% 確率
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
10% 確率
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No comprehensive federal AI safety legislation has advanced through both chambers of Congress as of August 2026, despite multiple introductions in the 119th Congress such as the Great American AI Act discussion draft and proposals for frontier model testing, transparency requirements, and incident reporting. Legislative momentum remains limited by ongoing disagreements over federal preemption of state AI rules, the breadth of any safety mandates, and competing priorities ahead of the midterms. The administration has prioritized innovation-focused executive actions and a national framework emphasizing voluntary measures over new binding obligations. With roughly four months left in the calendar year, traders see the compressed timeline and absence of floor votes or committee breakthroughs as major barriers to enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
音量
$101,790終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No comprehensive federal AI safety legislation has advanced through both chambers of Congress as of August 2026, despite multiple introductions in the 119th Congress such as the Great American AI Act discussion draft and proposals for frontier model testing, transparency requirements, and incident reporting. Legislative momentum remains limited by ongoing disagreements over federal preemption of state AI rules, the breadth of any safety mandates, and competing priorities ahead of the midterms. The administration has prioritized innovation-focused executive actions and a national framework emphasizing voluntary measures over new binding obligations. With roughly four months left in the calendar year, traders see the compressed timeline and absence of floor votes or committee breakthroughs as major barriers to enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$101,790終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No comprehensive federal AI safety legislation has advanced through both chambers of Congress as of August 2026, despite multiple introductions in the 119th Congress such as the Great American AI Act discussion draft and proposals for frontier model testing, transparency requirements, and incident reporting. Legislative momentum remains limited by ongoing disagreements over federal preemption of state AI rules, the breadth of any safety mandates, and competing priorities ahead of the midterms. The administration has prioritized innovation-focused executive actions and a national framework emphasizing voluntary measures over new binding obligations. With roughly four months left in the calendar year, traders see the compressed timeline and absence of floor votes or committee breakthroughs as major barriers to enactment before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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