**Cristobal leads the market at 32.5% implied probability for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane, followed closely by Dolly at 26%, with all later names below 9%.** As of mid-August 2026, only two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed, both failing to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA’s updated outlook keeps the season well below normal (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes total), consistent with suppressed conditions including elevated wind shear and limited African easterly wave activity. With the naming list progressing alphabetically after Bertha, the next system (likely Cristobal) carries the highest near-term odds of becoming the season’s first hurricane if it organizes and intensifies before later names like Dolly or Edouard develop. Market pricing reflects this timing uncertainty, the low accumulated cyclone energy so far, and the realistic chance that the first hurricane could still slip to Dolly or beyond if development remains delayed into late summer. Forecast model consensus and official National Hurricane Center updates through the peak months will be the key drivers shifting these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日クリストバル 32%
ドリー 11%
エドゥアール 9%
フェイ 6%
新規
新規
2026/12/01
クリストバル
32%
ドリー
26%
エドゥアール
9%
フェイ
6%
ゴンザロ
5%
ハンナ
5%
イサイアス
5%
ジョセフィン
5%
カイル
4%
リア
3%
マルコ
5%
ナナ
5%
オマール
5%
パウレット
5%
ルネ
5%
サリー
3%
テディ
5%
ヴィッキー
4%
ウィルフレッド
5%
その他
4%
クリストバル 32%
ドリー 11%
エドゥアール 9%
フェイ 6%
新規
新規
2026/12/01
クリストバル
$269 Vol.
32%
ドリー
$86 Vol.
26%
エドゥアール
$660 Vol.
9%
フェイ
$93 Vol.
6%
ゴンザロ
$72 Vol.
5%
ハンナ
$98 Vol.
5%
イサイアス
$88 Vol.
5%
ジョセフィン
$55 Vol.
5%
カイル
$94 Vol.
4%
リア
$59 Vol.
3%
マルコ
$111 Vol.
5%
ナナ
$51 Vol.
5%
オマール
$67 Vol.
5%
パウレット
$71 Vol.
5%
ルネ
$63 Vol.
5%
サリー
$131 Vol.
3%
テディ
$63 Vol.
5%
ヴィッキー
$90 Vol.
4%
ウィルフレッド
$118 Vol.
5%
その他
$63 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Cristobal leads the market at 32.5% implied probability for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane, followed closely by Dolly at 26%, with all later names below 9%.**
As of mid-August 2026, only two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed, both failing to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA’s updated outlook keeps the season well below normal (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes total), consistent with suppressed conditions including elevated wind shear and limited African easterly wave activity.
With the naming list progressing alphabetically after Bertha, the next system (likely Cristobal) carries the highest near-term odds of becoming the season’s first hurricane if it organizes and intensifies before later names like Dolly or Edouard develop. Market pricing reflects this timing uncertainty, the low accumulated cyclone energy so far, and the realistic chance that the first hurricane could still slip to Dolly or beyond if development remains delayed into late summer. Forecast model consensus and official National Hurricane Center updates through the peak months will be the key drivers shifting these odds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
音量
$2,405終了日
2026/12/02マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Cristobal leads the market at 32.5% implied probability for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane, followed closely by Dolly at 26%, with all later names below 9%.**
As of mid-August 2026, only two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed, both failing to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA’s updated outlook keeps the season well below normal (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes total), consistent with suppressed conditions including elevated wind shear and limited African easterly wave activity.
With the naming list progressing alphabetically after Bertha, the next system (likely Cristobal) carries the highest near-term odds of becoming the season’s first hurricane if it organizes and intensifies before later names like Dolly or Edouard develop. Market pricing reflects this timing uncertainty, the low accumulated cyclone energy so far, and the realistic chance that the first hurricane could still slip to Dolly or beyond if development remains delayed into late summer. Forecast model consensus and official National Hurricane Center updates through the peak months will be the key drivers shifting these odds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
音量
$2,405終了日
2026/12/02マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cristobal leads the market at 32.5% implied probability for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane, followed closely by Dolly at 26%, with all later names below 9%.** As of mid-August 2026, only two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed, both failing to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA’s updated outlook keeps the season well below normal (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes total), consistent with suppressed conditions including elevated wind shear and limited African easterly wave activity. With the naming list progressing alphabetically after Bertha, the next system (likely Cristobal) carries the highest near-term odds of becoming the season’s first hurricane if it organizes and intensifies before later names like Dolly or Edouard develop. Market pricing reflects this timing uncertainty, the low accumulated cyclone energy so far, and the realistic chance that the first hurricane could still slip to Dolly or beyond if development remains delayed into late summer. Forecast model consensus and official National Hurricane Center updates through the peak months will be the key drivers shifting these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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