Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, prompting traders to assign the highest probability to a departure in the May 15–22 window at 50.9 percent, with the following week close behind at 42.5 percent. Senate confirmation of successor Kevin Warsh occurred in the final days before the term expired, yet the swearing-in remains pending, leaving Powell temporarily serving as chair pro tempore. This procedural gap, combined with Powell’s stated plan to remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period amid ongoing legal and institutional matters, has kept the two leading intervals tightly matched. Any acceleration or delay in Warsh’s formal assumption of the chair could quickly shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 46.0%
May 23–29 28.7%
May 30–June 5 6.2%
June 6–12 2.6%
$169,173 Vol.
$169,173 Vol.
2026/07/03
May 15–22
51%
May 23–29
41%
May 30–June 5
6%
June 6–12
3%
June 13–19
2%
June 20–26
1%
June 27–July 3
1%
After July 3
1%
May 15–22 46.0%
May 23–29 28.7%
May 30–June 5 6.2%
June 6–12 2.6%
$169,173 Vol.
$169,173 Vol.
2026/07/03
May 15–22
$65,197 Vol.
51%
May 23–29
$8,345 Vol.
41%
May 30–June 5
$9,137 Vol.
6%
June 6–12
$9,059 Vol.
3%
June 13–19
$8,855 Vol.
2%
June 20–26
$10,436 Vol.
1%
June 27–July 3
$5,200 Vol.
1%
After July 3
$16,497 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, prompting traders to assign the highest probability to a departure in the May 15–22 window at 50.9 percent, with the following week close behind at 42.5 percent. Senate confirmation of successor Kevin Warsh occurred in the final days before the term expired, yet the swearing-in remains pending, leaving Powell temporarily serving as chair pro tempore. This procedural gap, combined with Powell’s stated plan to remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period amid ongoing legal and institutional matters, has kept the two leading intervals tightly matched. Any acceleration or delay in Warsh’s formal assumption of the chair could quickly shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
音量
$169,173終了日
2026/07/03マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, prompting traders to assign the highest probability to a departure in the May 15–22 window at 50.9 percent, with the following week close behind at 42.5 percent. Senate confirmation of successor Kevin Warsh occurred in the final days before the term expired, yet the swearing-in remains pending, leaving Powell temporarily serving as chair pro tempore. This procedural gap, combined with Powell’s stated plan to remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period amid ongoing legal and institutional matters, has kept the two leading intervals tightly matched. Any acceleration or delay in Warsh’s formal assumption of the chair could quickly shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$169,173終了日
2026/07/03マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, prompting traders to assign the highest probability to a departure in the May 15–22 window at 50.9 percent, with the following week close behind at 42.5 percent. Senate confirmation of successor Kevin Warsh occurred in the final days before the term expired, yet the swearing-in remains pending, leaving Powell temporarily serving as chair pro tempore. This procedural gap, combined with Powell’s stated plan to remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period amid ongoing legal and institutional matters, has kept the two leading intervals tightly matched. Any acceleration or delay in Warsh’s formal assumption of the chair could quickly shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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