The recent closure of Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia on May 1—the second U.S. bank failure of 2026 following January’s Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust resolution—has sharpened trader attention on smaller regional lenders with elevated commercial real estate exposure. Persistent pressure from maturing CRE loans exceeding $1 trillion industry-wide, combined with office vacancy rates above 20 percent and higher-for-longer interest rates, continues to drive credit losses and liquidity strains at institutions holding concentrated C&I and CRE portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report underscores resilient aggregate capital ratios well above regulatory minimums and moderate funding risks, with uninsured deposits below 2023 peaks, indicating firm-specific vulnerabilities rather than systemic fragility. Q2 earnings releases in July and any additional FDIC supervisory actions through June 30 remain the primary near-term catalysts that could influence further resolutions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$500,130 Vol.
2026/06/30
BMO
3%
ロイズ
2%
RBC
2%
Truist
2%
サンタンデール
1%
BNPパリバ
1%
UBS
1%
USバンク
1%
HSBC
1%
モルガン・スタンレー
1%
スコシアバンク
1%
ドイツ銀行
1%
ゴールドマン・サックス
1%
バンク・オブ・アメリカ
1%
BNY
1%
シティグループ
1%
ウェルズ・ファーゴ
1%
キー銀行
1%
JPMorgan Chase
<1%
$500,130 Vol.
BMO
$826 Vol.
3%
ロイズ
$657 Vol.
2%
RBC
$281 Vol.
2%
Truist
$223 Vol.
2%
サンタンデール
$168 Vol.
1%
BNPパリバ
$23,088 Vol.
1%
UBS
$34,031 Vol.
1%
USバンク
$936 Vol.
1%
HSBC
$39,811 Vol.
1%
モルガン・スタンレー
$565 Vol.
1%
スコシアバンク
$47,469 Vol.
1%
ドイツ銀行
$168,028 Vol.
1%
ゴールドマン・サックス
$34,283 Vol.
1%
バンク・オブ・アメリカ
$560 Vol.
1%
BNY
$304 Vol.
1%
シティグループ
$9,652 Vol.
1%
ウェルズ・ファーゴ
$822 Vol.
1%
キー銀行
$744 Vol.
1%
JPMorgan Chase
$137,683 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent closure of Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia on May 1—the second U.S. bank failure of 2026 following January’s Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust resolution—has sharpened trader attention on smaller regional lenders with elevated commercial real estate exposure. Persistent pressure from maturing CRE loans exceeding $1 trillion industry-wide, combined with office vacancy rates above 20 percent and higher-for-longer interest rates, continues to drive credit losses and liquidity strains at institutions holding concentrated C&I and CRE portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report underscores resilient aggregate capital ratios well above regulatory minimums and moderate funding risks, with uninsured deposits below 2023 peaks, indicating firm-specific vulnerabilities rather than systemic fragility. Q2 earnings releases in July and any additional FDIC supervisory actions through June 30 remain the primary near-term catalysts that could influence further resolutions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
音量
$500,130終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent closure of Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia on May 1—the second U.S. bank failure of 2026 following January’s Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust resolution—has sharpened trader attention on smaller regional lenders with elevated commercial real estate exposure. Persistent pressure from maturing CRE loans exceeding $1 trillion industry-wide, combined with office vacancy rates above 20 percent and higher-for-longer interest rates, continues to drive credit losses and liquidity strains at institutions holding concentrated C&I and CRE portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report underscores resilient aggregate capital ratios well above regulatory minimums and moderate funding risks, with uninsured deposits below 2023 peaks, indicating firm-specific vulnerabilities rather than systemic fragility. Q2 earnings releases in July and any additional FDIC supervisory actions through June 30 remain the primary near-term catalysts that could influence further resolutions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$500,130終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent closure of Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia on May 1—the second U.S. bank failure of 2026 following January’s Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust resolution—has sharpened trader attention on smaller regional lenders with elevated commercial real estate exposure. Persistent pressure from maturing CRE loans exceeding $1 trillion industry-wide, combined with office vacancy rates above 20 percent and higher-for-longer interest rates, continues to drive credit losses and liquidity strains at institutions holding concentrated C&I and CRE portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report underscores resilient aggregate capital ratios well above regulatory minimums and moderate funding risks, with uninsured deposits below 2023 peaks, indicating firm-specific vulnerabilities rather than systemic fragility. Q2 earnings releases in July and any additional FDIC supervisory actions through June 30 remain the primary near-term catalysts that could influence further resolutions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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