Traders assign "Other" the leading 50% probability in this market because no major Democratic contender has yet formed an exploratory committee or declared a 2028 presidential bid as of August 2026, leaving the field wide open for an unlisted figure to move first. Andy Beshear at 28.5% benefits from his record as Kentucky governor and positioning as a moderate with appeal in swing states, while Gavin Newsom at 20% draws attention from his California platform and explicit signals of interest in a national run. Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and others trail as they weigh post-2024 roles amid early polling and coalition-building ahead of the DNC's primary calendar decisions. Recent factors include mid-2026 discussions over South Carolina leading the 2028 primary order and ongoing midterm fundraising that could accelerate timelines without yet producing formal announcements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンディ・ベシア 29%
ギャビン・ニューサム 20.0%
ピート・ブティジェッジ 14%
カマラ・ハリス 13%
新規
新規
2028/12/31
アンディ・ベシア
29%
ギャビン・ニューサム
20%
ピート・ブティジェッジ
14%
カマラ・ハリス
13%
ロ・カンナ
9%
ラーム・エマニュエル
8%
ジョシュ・シャピロ
4%
ジョン・オソフ
2%
アレクサンドリア・オカシオ＝コルテス
2%
ジョン・スチュワート
<1%
スティーブン・A・スミス
<1%
アンディ・ベシア 29%
ギャビン・ニューサム 20.0%
ピート・ブティジェッジ 14%
カマラ・ハリス 13%
新規
新規
2028/12/31
アンディ・ベシア
$1,880 Vol.
29%
ギャビン・ニューサム
$2,758 Vol.
20%
ピート・ブティジェッジ
$580 Vol.
14%
カマラ・ハリス
$504 Vol.
13%
ロ・カンナ
$383 Vol.
9%
ラーム・エマニュエル
$512 Vol.
8%
ジョシュ・シャピロ
$306 Vol.
4%
ジョン・オソフ
$306 Vol.
2%
アレクサンドリア・オカシオ＝コルテス
$391 Vol.
2%
ジョン・スチュワート
$364 Vol.
<1%
スティーブン・A・スミス
$284 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign "Other" the leading 50% probability in this market because no major Democratic contender has yet formed an exploratory committee or declared a 2028 presidential bid as of August 2026, leaving the field wide open for an unlisted figure to move first. Andy Beshear at 28.5% benefits from his record as Kentucky governor and positioning as a moderate with appeal in swing states, while Gavin Newsom at 20% draws attention from his California platform and explicit signals of interest in a national run. Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and others trail as they weigh post-2024 roles amid early polling and coalition-building ahead of the DNC's primary calendar decisions. Recent factors include mid-2026 discussions over South Carolina leading the 2028 primary order and ongoing midterm fundraising that could accelerate timelines without yet producing formal announcements.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET
音量
$8,270終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign "Other" the leading 50% probability in this market because no major Democratic contender has yet formed an exploratory committee or declared a 2028 presidential bid as of August 2026, leaving the field wide open for an unlisted figure to move first. Andy Beshear at 28.5% benefits from his record as Kentucky governor and positioning as a moderate with appeal in swing states, while Gavin Newsom at 20% draws attention from his California platform and explicit signals of interest in a national run. Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and others trail as they weigh post-2024 roles amid early polling and coalition-building ahead of the DNC's primary calendar decisions. Recent factors include mid-2026 discussions over South Carolina leading the 2028 primary order and ongoing midterm fundraising that could accelerate timelines without yet producing formal announcements.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$8,270終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign "Other" the leading 50% probability in this market because no major Democratic contender has yet formed an exploratory committee or declared a 2028 presidential bid as of August 2026, leaving the field wide open for an unlisted figure to move first. Andy Beshear at 28.5% benefits from his record as Kentucky governor and positioning as a moderate with appeal in swing states, while Gavin Newsom at 20% draws attention from his California platform and explicit signals of interest in a national run. Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and others trail as they weigh post-2024 roles amid early polling and coalition-building ahead of the DNC's primary calendar decisions. Recent factors include mid-2026 discussions over South Carolina leading the 2028 primary order and ongoing midterm fundraising that could accelerate timelines without yet producing formal announcements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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