Recent opinion polls place the AfD at 35-36 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election, far below the roughly 50 percent vote share typically required for an absolute majority in the proportional representation system used for the 71-seat parliament. Other parties, including the SPD at 28-29 percent and smaller groups clearing the 5 percent threshold, continue to fragment the remaining vote, preventing any single party from securing enough seats outright. This stable polling gap underpins the near-certain trader consensus against an AfD majority. Realistic shifts could still arise from sharp late swings in voter turnout, unexpected collapses among minor parties that redistribute seats, or coordinated campaign events altering momentum in the final weeks.