Diplomatic frictions involving the United States have remained contained through standard channels rather than escalating to formal expulsions of U.S. ambassadors. Recent U.S. recalls of career envoys and summonses in South Africa over policy comments were addressed bilaterally without declarations of persona non grata, while early tensions in Lebanon similarly concluded through routine consultations. Ongoing Middle East ceasefire talks and African policy discussions have not crossed thresholds that historically trigger such actions, and no new espionage cases or severed ties have emerged. Trader consensus at 72.5% for no expulsion by year-end reflects these stable patterns and the rarity of ambassador-level expulsions in contemporary diplomacy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$15,172 Vol.
$15,172 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$15,172 Vol.
$15,172 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic frictions involving the United States have remained contained through standard channels rather than escalating to formal expulsions of U.S. ambassadors. Recent U.S. recalls of career envoys and summonses in South Africa over policy comments were addressed bilaterally without declarations of persona non grata, while early tensions in Lebanon similarly concluded through routine consultations. Ongoing Middle East ceasefire talks and African policy discussions have not crossed thresholds that historically trigger such actions, and no new espionage cases or severed ties have emerged. Trader consensus at 72.5% for no expulsion by year-end reflects these stable patterns and the rarity of ambassador-level expulsions in contemporary diplomacy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$15,172終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic frictions involving the United States have remained contained through standard channels rather than escalating to formal expulsions of U.S. ambassadors. Recent U.S. recalls of career envoys and summonses in South Africa over policy comments were addressed bilaterally without declarations of persona non grata, while early tensions in Lebanon similarly concluded through routine consultations. Ongoing Middle East ceasefire talks and African policy discussions have not crossed thresholds that historically trigger such actions, and no new espionage cases or severed ties have emerged. Trader consensus at 72.5% for no expulsion by year-end reflects these stable patterns and the rarity of ambassador-level expulsions in contemporary diplomacy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$15,172終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic frictions involving the United States have remained contained through standard channels rather than escalating to formal expulsions of U.S. ambassadors. Recent U.S. recalls of career envoys and summonses in South Africa over policy comments were addressed bilaterally without declarations of persona non grata, while early tensions in Lebanon similarly concluded through routine consultations. Ongoing Middle East ceasefire talks and African policy discussions have not crossed thresholds that historically trigger such actions, and no new espionage cases or severed ties have emerged. Trader consensus at 72.5% for no expulsion by year-end reflects these stable patterns and the rarity of ambassador-level expulsions in contemporary diplomacy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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