**Trader consensus heavily favors no change (84.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock’s published 1.5°C deadline—currently July 22, 2029—relies on remaining carbon budget estimates that update only infrequently from authoritative sources such as the IPCC, Global Carbon Project, and Mercator Research Institute.** These budgets incorporate observed CO₂ emissions trends (roughly 42 Gt per year recently, with ~1% annual growth) and project exhaustion around 2029 at current rates. From the August 2026 market start through December 31, 2026, only about four months remain—too short a window for a new major assessment or emissions surge to shift the displayed timestamp by the market’s >30-day threshold. Recent conditions reinforce stability: 2024–2025 records show persistently high emissions without sharp acceleration or mitigation breakthroughs capable of immediately revising the budget, while multi-decadal warming trends (human-induced warming near 1.37°C in 2025) align with existing projections rather than triggering clock resets. Historical updates occur sporadically (e.g., 2023 and 2021), not annually, supporting the view that the deadline will hold steady through year-end absent unexpected new observational data or model refinements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日16% 確率
新規
新規
2027/01/01
16% 確率
新規
新規
2027/01/01
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus heavily favors no change (84.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock’s published 1.5°C deadline—currently July 22, 2029—relies on remaining carbon budget estimates that update only infrequently from authoritative sources such as the IPCC, Global Carbon Project, and Mercator Research Institute.**
These budgets incorporate observed CO₂ emissions trends (roughly 42 Gt per year recently, with ~1% annual growth) and project exhaustion around 2029 at current rates. From the August 2026 market start through December 31, 2026, only about four months remain—too short a window for a new major assessment or emissions surge to shift the displayed timestamp by the market’s >30-day threshold.
Recent conditions reinforce stability: 2024–2025 records show persistently high emissions without sharp acceleration or mitigation breakthroughs capable of immediately revising the budget, while multi-decadal warming trends (human-induced warming near 1.37°C in 2025) align with existing projections rather than triggering clock resets. Historical updates occur sporadically (e.g., 2023 and 2021), not annually, supporting the view that the deadline will hold steady through year-end absent unexpected new observational data or model refinements.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
マーケット開始日： Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
音量
$7,857終了日
2029/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus heavily favors no change (84.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock’s published 1.5°C deadline—currently July 22, 2029—relies on remaining carbon budget estimates that update only infrequently from authoritative sources such as the IPCC, Global Carbon Project, and Mercator Research Institute.**
These budgets incorporate observed CO₂ emissions trends (roughly 42 Gt per year recently, with ~1% annual growth) and project exhaustion around 2029 at current rates. From the August 2026 market start through December 31, 2026, only about four months remain—too short a window for a new major assessment or emissions surge to shift the displayed timestamp by the market’s >30-day threshold.
Recent conditions reinforce stability: 2024–2025 records show persistently high emissions without sharp acceleration or mitigation breakthroughs capable of immediately revising the budget, while multi-decadal warming trends (human-induced warming near 1.37°C in 2025) align with existing projections rather than triggering clock resets. Historical updates occur sporadically (e.g., 2023 and 2021), not annually, supporting the view that the deadline will hold steady through year-end absent unexpected new observational data or model refinements.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
音量
$7,857終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors no change (84.5% implied probability) because the Climate Clock’s published 1.5°C deadline—currently July 22, 2029—relies on remaining carbon budget estimates that update only infrequently from authoritative sources such as the IPCC, Global Carbon Project, and Mercator Research Institute.** These budgets incorporate observed CO₂ emissions trends (roughly 42 Gt per year recently, with ~1% annual growth) and project exhaustion around 2029 at current rates. From the August 2026 market start through December 31, 2026, only about four months remain—too short a window for a new major assessment or emissions surge to shift the displayed timestamp by the market’s >30-day threshold. Recent conditions reinforce stability: 2024–2025 records show persistently high emissions without sharp acceleration or mitigation breakthroughs capable of immediately revising the budget, while multi-decadal warming trends (human-induced warming near 1.37°C in 2025) align with existing projections rather than triggering clock resets. Historical updates occur sporadically (e.g., 2023 and 2021), not annually, supporting the view that the deadline will hold steady through year-end absent unexpected new observational data or model refinements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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