Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at tropical storm strength with sustained winds near 40-45 knots near 13°N 150°E in the western Pacific, sits in a highly favorable environment of warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear that supports rapid intensification over the next 36-72 hours. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, along with ensemble runs from HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC, and experimental models, consistently projects a 65-75+ knot jump, with peak intensities reaching 115-130 knots—placing the system firmly in the very strong typhoon range on the JMA scale before it encounters cooler waters and reduced oceanic heat content left by prior systems. This model consensus on near-term strengthening, combined with explicit rapid-intensification probabilities above 60 percent, underpins the market’s leading 54.5 percent implied probability for very strong typhoon status, while lower odds for violent typhoon or weaker outcomes reflect uncertainty around exact peak timing and subsequent weakening after August 23.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日熱帯低気圧「サウデル」はどのくらい強くなりますか？
熱帯低気圧「サウデル」はどのくらい強くなりますか？
非常に強い台風 50%
台風 26%
猛烈な台風 17%
熱帯性暴風雨 6%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
熱帯性暴風雨
6%
強い熱帯性暴風雨
6%
台風
26%
非常に強い台風
50%
猛烈な台風
17%
非常に強い台風 50%
台風 26%
猛烈な台風 17%
熱帯性暴風雨 6%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
熱帯性暴風雨
$20 Vol.
6%
強い熱帯性暴風雨
$19 Vol.
6%
台風
$37 Vol.
26%
非常に強い台風
$35 Vol.
50%
猛烈な台風
$96 Vol.
17%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at tropical storm strength with sustained winds near 40-45 knots near 13°N 150°E in the western Pacific, sits in a highly favorable environment of warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear that supports rapid intensification over the next 36-72 hours. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, along with ensemble runs from HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC, and experimental models, consistently projects a 65-75+ knot jump, with peak intensities reaching 115-130 knots—placing the system firmly in the very strong typhoon range on the JMA scale before it encounters cooler waters and reduced oceanic heat content left by prior systems. This model consensus on near-term strengthening, combined with explicit rapid-intensification probabilities above 60 percent, underpins the market’s leading 54.5 percent implied probability for very strong typhoon status, while lower odds for violent typhoon or weaker outcomes reflect uncertainty around exact peak timing and subsequent weakening after August 23.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
音量
$207終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETThis market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at tropical storm strength with sustained winds near 40-45 knots near 13°N 150°E in the western Pacific, sits in a highly favorable environment of warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear that supports rapid intensification over the next 36-72 hours. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, along with ensemble runs from HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC, and experimental models, consistently projects a 65-75+ knot jump, with peak intensities reaching 115-130 knots—placing the system firmly in the very strong typhoon range on the JMA scale before it encounters cooler waters and reduced oceanic heat content left by prior systems. This model consensus on near-term strengthening, combined with explicit rapid-intensification probabilities above 60 percent, underpins the market’s leading 54.5 percent implied probability for very strong typhoon status, while lower odds for violent typhoon or weaker outcomes reflect uncertainty around exact peak timing and subsequent weakening after August 23.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
音量
$207終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETTropical Storm Saudel, currently at tropical storm strength with sustained winds near 40-45 knots near 13°N 150°E in the western Pacific, sits in a highly favorable environment of warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear that supports rapid intensification over the next 36-72 hours. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, along with ensemble runs from HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC, and experimental models, consistently projects a 65-75+ knot jump, with peak intensities reaching 115-130 knots—placing the system firmly in the very strong typhoon range on the JMA scale before it encounters cooler waters and reduced oceanic heat content left by prior systems. This model consensus on near-term strengthening, combined with explicit rapid-intensification probabilities above 60 percent, underpins the market’s leading 54.5 percent implied probability for very strong typhoon status, while lower odds for violent typhoon or weaker outcomes reflect uncertainty around exact peak timing and subsequent weakening after August 23.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問