Turkish authorities achieved the removal of CHP opposition leader Özgür Özel from party leadership through May 2026 court rulings annulling the 2023 congress and reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, followed by police eviction from headquarters rather than detention. This judicial approach, alongside arrests of other CHP figures in related congress probes, has addressed government objectives without formal arrest of Özel himself. With only weeks remaining until the June 30 deadline, traders assign 97.5% probability to no arrest, reflecting the pattern of legal containment over immediate detention in recent opposition cases. Late-stage charges tied to ongoing investigations or sudden escalation in parliamentary or street tensions remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,925 Vol.
$28,925 Vol.
2026/06/30
$28,925 Vol.
$28,925 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish authorities achieved the removal of CHP opposition leader Özgür Özel from party leadership through May 2026 court rulings annulling the 2023 congress and reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, followed by police eviction from headquarters rather than detention. This judicial approach, alongside arrests of other CHP figures in related congress probes, has addressed government objectives without formal arrest of Özel himself. With only weeks remaining until the June 30 deadline, traders assign 97.5% probability to no arrest, reflecting the pattern of legal containment over immediate detention in recent opposition cases. Late-stage charges tied to ongoing investigations or sudden escalation in parliamentary or street tensions remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ET
音量
$28,925終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish authorities achieved the removal of CHP opposition leader Özgür Özel from party leadership through May 2026 court rulings annulling the 2023 congress and reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, followed by police eviction from headquarters rather than detention. This judicial approach, alongside arrests of other CHP figures in related congress probes, has addressed government objectives without formal arrest of Özel himself. With only weeks remaining until the June 30 deadline, traders assign 97.5% probability to no arrest, reflecting the pattern of legal containment over immediate detention in recent opposition cases. Late-stage charges tied to ongoing investigations or sudden escalation in parliamentary or street tensions remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$28,925終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkish authorities achieved the removal of CHP opposition leader Özgür Özel from party leadership through May 2026 court rulings annulling the 2023 congress and reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, followed by police eviction from headquarters rather than detention. This judicial approach, alongside arrests of other CHP figures in related congress probes, has addressed government objectives without formal arrest of Özel himself. With only weeks remaining until the June 30 deadline, traders assign 97.5% probability to no arrest, reflecting the pattern of legal containment over immediate detention in recent opposition cases. Late-stage charges tied to ongoing investigations or sudden escalation in parliamentary or street tensions remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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