Recent polls show Brazil's October 2026 presidential contest locked in a statistical dead heat, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each receiving around 45 percent in simulated runoffs and Lula holding only a modest first-round edge amid vote fragmentation. This dynamic favors narrow victory margins in the October 4 first round, as conservative support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate while Lula draws from traditional left-leaning and centrist blocs. Key differentiators include Lula's incumbency advantages and policy record versus Flávio Bolsonaro's ability to unify right-wing voters previously split among governors and other challengers. Upcoming economic data releases, candidate debates, and any further scrutiny of party financing could shift turnout or undecided voters enough to widen or narrow the eventual first-place margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트룰라 다 시우바 <5% 31%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10% 19%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5% 19%
기타 8.3%
$231,706 거래량
$231,706 거래량
2026.10.04
룰라 다 시우바 15%+
4%
룰라 다 시우바 10-15%
7%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10%
19%
룰라 다 시우바 <5%
32%
플라비우 보우소나루 10%+
5%
플라비우 보우소나루 5–10%
6%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5%
19%
헤난 산토스 승리
5%
타르시지우 지 프레이타스 승리
<1%
하치뉴 주니오르 승리
<1%
기타
8%
룰라 다 시우바 <5% 31%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10% 19%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5% 19%
기타 8.3%
$231,706 거래량
$231,706 거래량
2026.10.04
룰라 다 시우바 15%+
$4,601 거래량
4%
룰라 다 시우바 10-15%
$2,627 거래량
7%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10%
$6,857 거래량
19%
룰라 다 시우바 <5%
$2,923 거래량
32%
플라비우 보우소나루 10%+
$1,984 거래량
5%
플라비우 보우소나루 5–10%
$2,309 거래량
6%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5%
$4,026 거래량
19%
헤난 산토스 승리
$200,633 거래량
5%
타르시지우 지 프레이타스 승리
$1,712 거래량
<1%
하치뉴 주니오르 승리
$1,774 거래량
<1%
기타
$2,258 거래량
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show Brazil's October 2026 presidential contest locked in a statistical dead heat, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each receiving around 45 percent in simulated runoffs and Lula holding only a modest first-round edge amid vote fragmentation. This dynamic favors narrow victory margins in the October 4 first round, as conservative support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate while Lula draws from traditional left-leaning and centrist blocs. Key differentiators include Lula's incumbency advantages and policy record versus Flávio Bolsonaro's ability to unify right-wing voters previously split among governors and other challengers. Upcoming economic data releases, candidate debates, and any further scrutiny of party financing could shift turnout or undecided voters enough to widen or narrow the eventual first-place margin.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
마켓 개설일: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$231,706종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show Brazil's October 2026 presidential contest locked in a statistical dead heat, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each receiving around 45 percent in simulated runoffs and Lula holding only a modest first-round edge amid vote fragmentation. This dynamic favors narrow victory margins in the October 4 first round, as conservative support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate while Lula draws from traditional left-leaning and centrist blocs. Key differentiators include Lula's incumbency advantages and policy record versus Flávio Bolsonaro's ability to unify right-wing voters previously split among governors and other challengers. Upcoming economic data releases, candidate debates, and any further scrutiny of party financing could shift turnout or undecided voters enough to widen or narrow the eventual first-place margin.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
거래량
$231,706종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls show Brazil's October 2026 presidential contest locked in a statistical dead heat, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each receiving around 45 percent in simulated runoffs and Lula holding only a modest first-round edge amid vote fragmentation. This dynamic favors narrow victory margins in the October 4 first round, as conservative support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate while Lula draws from traditional left-leaning and centrist blocs. Key differentiators include Lula's incumbency advantages and policy record versus Flávio Bolsonaro's ability to unify right-wing voters previously split among governors and other challengers. Upcoming economic data releases, candidate debates, and any further scrutiny of party financing could shift turnout or undecided voters enough to widen or narrow the eventual first-place margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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