Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in recent national polls ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula typically at 38-40% and Bolsonaro at 33-37% amid a crowded field that includes Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. This fragmentation sustains trader emphasis on Lula securing victory by under 5 points, as smaller candidates draw votes that prevent outright majorities and keep margins tight. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement has consolidated much of the right-wing base behind his son, while Lula’s approval ratings near 44-47% reflect ongoing economic pressures. Potential vote consolidation through governor endorsements, candidate withdrawals, or fresh economic data could widen or narrow these gaps before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트룰라 다 시우바 <5% 31%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5% 27%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10% 18%
룰라 다 시우바 10-15% 8.5%
$231,590 거래량
$231,590 거래량
2026.10.04
룰라 다 시우바 15%+
4%
룰라 다 시우바 10-15%
8%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10%
18%
룰라 다 시우바 <5%
36%
플라비우 보우소나루 10%+
2%
플라비우 보우소나루 5–10%
6%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5%
27%
헤난 산토스 승리
5%
타르시지우 지 프레이타스 승리
1%
하치뉴 주니오르 승리
<1%
기타
8%
룰라 다 시우바 <5% 31%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5% 27%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10% 18%
룰라 다 시우바 10-15% 8.5%
$231,590 거래량
$231,590 거래량
2026.10.04
룰라 다 시우바 15%+
$4,601 거래량
4%
룰라 다 시우바 10-15%
$2,627 거래량
8%
룰라 다 시우바 5~10%
$6,808 거래량
18%
룰라 다 시우바 <5%
$2,923 거래량
36%
플라비우 보우소나루 10%+
$1,984 거래량
2%
플라비우 보우소나루 5–10%
$2,309 거래량
6%
플라비우 볼소나루 <5%
$4,026 거래량
27%
헤난 산토스 승리
$200,567 거래량
5%
타르시지우 지 프레이타스 승리
$1,712 거래량
1%
하치뉴 주니오르 승리
$1,774 거래량
<1%
기타
$2,258 거래량
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in recent national polls ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula typically at 38-40% and Bolsonaro at 33-37% amid a crowded field that includes Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. This fragmentation sustains trader emphasis on Lula securing victory by under 5 points, as smaller candidates draw votes that prevent outright majorities and keep margins tight. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement has consolidated much of the right-wing base behind his son, while Lula’s approval ratings near 44-47% reflect ongoing economic pressures. Potential vote consolidation through governor endorsements, candidate withdrawals, or fresh economic data could widen or narrow these gaps before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
마켓 개설일: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$231,590종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in recent national polls ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula typically at 38-40% and Bolsonaro at 33-37% amid a crowded field that includes Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. This fragmentation sustains trader emphasis on Lula securing victory by under 5 points, as smaller candidates draw votes that prevent outright majorities and keep margins tight. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement has consolidated much of the right-wing base behind his son, while Lula’s approval ratings near 44-47% reflect ongoing economic pressures. Potential vote consolidation through governor endorsements, candidate withdrawals, or fresh economic data could widen or narrow these gaps before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
거래량
$231,590종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in recent national polls ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula typically at 38-40% and Bolsonaro at 33-37% amid a crowded field that includes Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. This fragmentation sustains trader emphasis on Lula securing victory by under 5 points, as smaller candidates draw votes that prevent outright majorities and keep margins tight. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement has consolidated much of the right-wing base behind his son, while Lula’s approval ratings near 44-47% reflect ongoing economic pressures. Potential vote consolidation through governor endorsements, candidate withdrawals, or fresh economic data could widen or narrow these gaps before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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