Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea have produced repeated vessel rammings, water-cannon incidents, and accusations of illegal landings and research activity near features such as Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, yet none have crossed into sustained direct military combat. Both governments have maintained limited dialogue channels and signaled restraint, while Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and joint naval drills with the United States, Australia, and Japan have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that these grey-zone tactics will continue without producing a full military clash before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$356,802 거래량
$356,802 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$356,802 거래량
$356,802 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea have produced repeated vessel rammings, water-cannon incidents, and accusations of illegal landings and research activity near features such as Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, yet none have crossed into sustained direct military combat. Both governments have maintained limited dialogue channels and signaled restraint, while Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and joint naval drills with the United States, Australia, and Japan have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that these grey-zone tactics will continue without producing a full military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
거래량
$356,802종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea have produced repeated vessel rammings, water-cannon incidents, and accusations of illegal landings and research activity near features such as Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, yet none have crossed into sustained direct military combat. Both governments have maintained limited dialogue channels and signaled restraint, while Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and joint naval drills with the United States, Australia, and Japan have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that these grey-zone tactics will continue without producing a full military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$356,802종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea have produced repeated vessel rammings, water-cannon incidents, and accusations of illegal landings and research activity near features such as Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, yet none have crossed into sustained direct military combat. Both governments have maintained limited dialogue channels and signaled restraint, while Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and joint naval drills with the United States, Australia, and Japan have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that these grey-zone tactics will continue without producing a full military clash before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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