Ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea continue to feature repeated grey-zone encounters between Chinese coast guard vessels and Philippine forces near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, including ramming incidents and water-cannon use through late 2025 and into April 2026. These actions have prompted Philippine protests and parallel U.S.-led Balikatan exercises with allied participation, reinforcing Manila’s defense posture under its mutual defense treaty. Recent diplomatic signals, including April 2026 statements signaling intent for bilateral talks on tensions and possible resource cooperation, alongside emerging signs of bilateral stabilization, have supported trader expectations that both capitals will sustain calibrated pressure without crossing into direct military confrontation before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$357,061 거래량
$357,061 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$357,061 거래량
$357,061 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea continue to feature repeated grey-zone encounters between Chinese coast guard vessels and Philippine forces near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, including ramming incidents and water-cannon use through late 2025 and into April 2026. These actions have prompted Philippine protests and parallel U.S.-led Balikatan exercises with allied participation, reinforcing Manila’s defense posture under its mutual defense treaty. Recent diplomatic signals, including April 2026 statements signaling intent for bilateral talks on tensions and possible resource cooperation, alongside emerging signs of bilateral stabilization, have supported trader expectations that both capitals will sustain calibrated pressure without crossing into direct military confrontation before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
거래량
$357,061종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea continue to feature repeated grey-zone encounters between Chinese coast guard vessels and Philippine forces near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, including ramming incidents and water-cannon use through late 2025 and into April 2026. These actions have prompted Philippine protests and parallel U.S.-led Balikatan exercises with allied participation, reinforcing Manila’s defense posture under its mutual defense treaty. Recent diplomatic signals, including April 2026 statements signaling intent for bilateral talks on tensions and possible resource cooperation, alongside emerging signs of bilateral stabilization, have supported trader expectations that both capitals will sustain calibrated pressure without crossing into direct military confrontation before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$357,061종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea continue to feature repeated grey-zone encounters between Chinese coast guard vessels and Philippine forces near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, including ramming incidents and water-cannon use through late 2025 and into April 2026. These actions have prompted Philippine protests and parallel U.S.-led Balikatan exercises with allied participation, reinforcing Manila’s defense posture under its mutual defense treaty. Recent diplomatic signals, including April 2026 statements signaling intent for bilateral talks on tensions and possible resource cooperation, alongside emerging signs of bilateral stabilization, have supported trader expectations that both capitals will sustain calibrated pressure without crossing into direct military confrontation before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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