**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Austin on July 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on July 4?
96-97°F 39%
98-99°F 37%
100-101°F 8%
94-95°F 7%
신규
$17,125 거래량
신규
$17,125 거래량
2026.07.04
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
39%
98-99°F
37%
100-101°F
8%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 39%
98-99°F 37%
100-101°F 8%
94-95°F 7%
신규
$17,125 거래량
신규
$17,125 거래량
2026.07.04
89°F or below
$1,166 거래량
<1%
90-91°F
$713 거래량
<1%
92-93°F
$1,006 거래량
1%
94-95°F
$1,607 거래량
7%
96-97°F
$1,779 거래량
39%
98-99°F
$6,487 거래량
37%
100-101°F
$1,218 거래량
8%
102-103°F
$661 거래량
1%
104-105°F
$848 거래량
<1%
106-107°F
$1,073 거래량
<1%
108°F or higher
$567 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
거래량
$17,125종료일
2026.07.04마켓 개설일
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
거래량
$17,125종료일
2026.07.04마켓 개설일
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET**Official National Weather Service guidance for Austin on July 4 points to a mostly sunny day with a forecast high near 98°F, placing the strongest market-implied odds on the 96–99°F bins.** This reflects the consensus from current model runs favoring typical midsummer radiative heating under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Austin’s July climatology of 96–97°F average highs. The close split between 96–97°F and 98–99°F outcomes stems from minor differences in timing of peak insolation and any subtle afternoon moisture or boundary-layer mixing that could shave or add a degree or two. Warmer bins above 100°F carry lower probability because ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger subsidence or drier air to push temperatures significantly higher, while cooler outcomes remain possible only if unexpected early cloud build-up occurs. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts most heavily ahead of the final observation at the official Austin recording site.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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