The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$215,611 거래량
2026.12.31
4.6%
95%
4.8%
45%
5.0%
27%
5.2%
11%
5.5%
7%
5.7%
6%
6.0%
4%
$215,611 거래량
4.6%
$37,797 거래량
95%
4.8%
$47,611 거래량
45%
5.0%
$49,754 거래량
27%
5.2%
$9,848 거래량
11%
5.5%
$1,471 거래량
7%
5.7%
$3,229 거래량
6%
6.0%
$2,152 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
거래량
$215,611종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 없음
최종 결과: 예
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
거래량
$215,611종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 없음
최종 결과: 예
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.59 percent as of May 15, 2026, its highest level since February 2025, driven primarily by hotter-than-expected April producer prices and resilient economic data that have tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing. With the fed funds rate holding steady near 3.50–3.75 percent amid sticky core inflation around 3 percent, markets are pricing in limited near-term rate cuts and elevated term premiums. Rising Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits, combined with potential tariff-related price pressures, continues to anchor longer-term yields above 4 percent. Traders are closely watching the May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether yields could test the 4.75–5.00 percent zone before year-end or remain capped by moderating growth.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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